Win rate
60.6%
60 W / 39 L
Total PnL
$3,997
realized $2,438 · unrealized $1,559
Portfolio
$1,559
volume $561,638
Predictions
101
2.4/day · avg $5,561
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 55% +$3,523
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | $-79 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 74¢ | +$75 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 37¢ | 70¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 69¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 77% +$763
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$258 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 78¢ | +$14 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
Other 67% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-9 | loss |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-163 | loss |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 50 and 60? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 50% $-46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | $-47 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 97¢ | +$23 | $880 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,217 | $12,916 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $911 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $1,356 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $217 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $563 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $95 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,175 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 83¢ | +$387 | $72 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $1,625 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 26.2¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $261 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | $4,444 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $454 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $3,178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $4,635 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-340 | $689 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 31.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,093 | $513 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $996 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,680 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $86 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $595 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $778 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026? | Yes | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $29 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $3,032 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28? | No | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $30 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 90.8¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $2,696 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $41 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 0¢ | $-134 | $1,543 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 72.7¢ | 0¢ | +$222 | $5,089 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | $2,324 | 31/01/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $6,930 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | $402 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,325 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,144 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $148 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $993 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $64 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $70 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,312 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $182 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | $-163 | $3,247 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 36.6¢ | 0¢ | $-196 | $209 | 31/01/2026 |