BloodyMummer

Geopolitics 81% +$38,219 $299,153 vol · 433 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	91¢	100¢	+$36	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	87¢	100¢	+$196	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$209	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$205	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	44¢	76¢	+$0	—
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	31¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	64¢	84¢	$-30	loss
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	No	79¢	94¢	+$52	win

Other 76% +$6,169 $78,911 vol · 138 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	96¢	100¢	+$9	win
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	+$8	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$83	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	76¢	82¢	+$30	win
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?	No	83¢	10¢	+$2	win
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	97¢	99¢	+$21	win
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	20¢	92¢	+$322	win
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	No	93¢	100¢	+$19	win
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	30¢	16¢	+$18	win
Claude 4.7 released by March 15?	No	98¢	100¢	+$9	win

Politics 78% +$3,249 $58,518 vol · 79 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	83¢	92¢	+$76	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$18	win
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Yes	33¢	17¢	+$2	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	28¢	32¢	$-48	loss
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$8	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	73¢	68¢	$-17	loss
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	95¢	77¢	$-44	loss
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	78¢	100¢	+$44	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	+$5	win

Elections 83% +$2,206 $15,027 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$263	win
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	68¢	0¢	+$2	win
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	69¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	No	96¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	97¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$16	win
Polish snap election called in 2025?	No	69¢	100¢	+$125	win
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	No	69¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	32¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-8	loss

Crypto 80% +$511 $10,226 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?	No	96¢	97¢	+$2	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	59¢	62¢	+$29	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	74¢	79¢	+$79	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	93¢	98¢	+$76	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$127	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	85¢	0¢	+$0	—
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?	No	71¢	100¢	+$103	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday?	No	90¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?	No	35¢	100¢	$-130	loss

Tech 89% +$187 $7,002 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	55¢	0¢	+$66	win
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	99¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	57¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?	No	77¢	100¢	+$62	win
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-136	loss
Will Buffett say "Tesla" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?	No	49¢	100¢	+$68	win
Will Buffett say "A.I" or "Artificial Intelligence" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$12	win

Mentions 100% +$82 $376 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$44	win
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?	No	81¢	100¢	+$38	win

Economy 67% +$13 $202 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?	No	59¢	100¢	+$11	win
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$8	win
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?	No	28¢	0¢	$-6	loss

Sports 100% +$11 $111 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?	Yes	16¢	0¢	+$11	win

Finance 67% $-107 $653 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	68¢	5¢	$-205	loss
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	No	57¢	100¢	+$92	win
Will Buffett say "Federal Reserve" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting?	Yes	78¢	0¢	+$6	win