Win rate
67.8%
287 W / 136 L
Total PnL
$10,270
realized $-23,036 · unrealized $33,305
Portfolio
$33,305
volume $2,015,409
Predictions
394
8.9/day · avg $5,115
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Tech 70% +$5,035
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 69¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 80¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 90¢ | +$35 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$765 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-861 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Geopolitics 75% +$2,667
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 40¢ | 16¢ | +$321 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$250 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-6,245 | loss |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-263 | loss |
Politics 71% +$2,505
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$588 | win |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | No | 40¢ | 50¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 84¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 8¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-702 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$7 | win |
Crypto 75% +$476
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$480 | win |
| Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Elections 75% +$250
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$156 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 85¢ | +$143 | win |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
Other 59% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 87¢ | 98¢ | +$20 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$1,355 | win |
| Will MrBeast get married by December 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 63¢ | +$158 | win |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 89¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 51¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Human moon landing in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-6 | loss |
Weather 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on December 19? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 0% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | $2,311 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $3,602 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $1,436 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $249 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $3,301 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 60.7¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $319 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 79.6¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | $1,114 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $594 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $321 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.3¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $193 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 85¢ | +$143 | $442 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,283 | $8,062 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 44.0¢ | 9¢ | +$231 | $461 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $43 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 73.9¢ | 0¢ | $-502 | $6,193 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 91¢ | $-212 | $10,899 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $452 | 01/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,049 | $15,929 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | No | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,694 | $15,854 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,019 | $2,601 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$813 | $2,419 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | +$765 | $9,239 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$648 | $5,488 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 53.5¢ | 100¢ | +$633 | $1,467 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | No | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$590 | $2,933 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$568 | $4,297 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | +$413 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$393 | $1,339 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | $2,794 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$285 | $2,159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $1,139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | Yes | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $375 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$186 | $1,883 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | $1,417 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $619 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | $1,435 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 71.5¢ | 0¢ | +$148 | $2,784 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $804 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $1,169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $141 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $1,217 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $2,565 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | +$62 | $151 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 33.2¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $189 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | +$59 | $373 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $291 | 31/03/2026 |