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0xfe712Af09305aeaE99fB3f8acde7D8BE36F67B31-1774710524263
0xfe712af09305aeae99fb3f8acde7d8be36f67b31 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
68.0%
17 W / 8 L
Total PnL
$102
realized $-452 · unrealized $554
Portfolio
$554
volume $8,201
Predictions
32
1.8/day · avg $256
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 100% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Geopolitics 56% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 76¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 55¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 32¢ | +$56 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 20¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Other 80% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will FalleN retire by June 1? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 49¢ | 64¢ | +$10 | win |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 44¢ | 36¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (25)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 37.0¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | $59 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $46 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $103 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $415 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 70.0¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | $70 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 19.0¢ | 20¢ | $-4 | $51 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 32¢ | +$56 | $200 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 58.1¢ | 46¢ | $-25 | $115 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 44.3¢ | 36¢ | +$6 | $102 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $248 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 49.0¢ | 64¢ | +$10 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 85.4¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | $72 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 55¢ | $-2 | $58 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | $134 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 62¢ | +$5 | $25 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will FalleN retire by June 1? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $24 | 01/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $110 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | $75 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | $45 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 72.1¢ | 76¢ | +$11 | $205 | 31/12/2026 |