Win rate
68.8%
574 W / 260 L
Total PnL
$-2,220
realized $-6,680 · unrealized $4,460
Portfolio
$4,460
volume $5,848,969
Predictions
1,451
7.3/day · avg $4,031
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Finance 100% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 14¢ | 26¢ | +$37 | win |
| OKX IPO in 2026? | No | 79¢ | 86¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Economy 78% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 81% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portugal election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
Culture 100% +$41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 115m and 129m? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 83% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 69¢ | 78¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| GPT ads by March 31? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Esports 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Imperial Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Mentions 94% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in January 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
Weather 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Sports 82% $-142
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 96¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 100¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Kings | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | win |
| Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Clippers | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-530 | loss |
| Jets vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 | Over | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | Blue Jackets | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
Other 84% $-245
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 86¢ | 95¢ | +$3 | win |
| Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 50¢ | +$1 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 72% $-777
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Lee Zeldin be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 83¢ | 88¢ | $-25 | loss |
Crypto 57% $-795
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 78% $-1,569
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 77¢ | +$13 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-320 | loss |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | — |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 42¢ | 29¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 22¢ | $-138 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 86¢ | +$5 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 90¢ | 97¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 36.3¢ | 10¢ | +$545 | $8,011 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.3¢ | 2¢ | +$473 | $656 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$389 | $5,663 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | $8,775 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | $1,440 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | $886 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $1,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 54.6¢ | 0¢ | $-590 | $11,367 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 47.9¢ | 100¢ | $-3,764 | $15,252 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$426 | $2,070 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | $2,079 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $340 | 12/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Kings | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | $590 | 11/04/2026 |
| Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Clippers | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-530 | $940 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $5,523 | 10/04/2026 |
| Jets vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 | Over | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 10/04/2026 |
| Blue Jackets vs. Sabres | Blue Jackets | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 09/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 54.2¢ | 10¢ | +$973 | $21,914 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 76.2¢ | 90¢ | +$211 | $2,095 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $6,167 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $157 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-214 | $1,430 | 07/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $3,080 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 39.9¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $116 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $126 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $186 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $70 | 01/04/2026 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $2,380 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $316 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | No | 29.5¢ | 0¢ | $-826 | $827 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $2,283 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $521 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $121 | 31/03/2026 |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $479 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $5,556 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $2,809 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $378 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $204 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | $-243 | $1,895 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,166 | 18/03/2026 |