Win rate
44.6%
604 W / 750 L
Total PnL
$12,839
realized $11,495 · unrealized $1,344
Portfolio
$1,344
volume $1,665,809
Predictions
1,493
9.6/day · avg $1,116
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 53% +$6,422
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Trump say "Jesus" in April? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 45¢ | 1¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? | Yes | 52¢ | 25¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 81¢ | +$168 | win |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 81¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 62¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-783 | loss |
Mentions 35% +$4,362
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 32¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Economy 73% +$652
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Polymarket" while tripping balls? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | loss |
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Blueprint" 10+ times while tripping balls? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
Tech 50% +$397
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Quantum" 5+ times during NVIDIA keynote? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$390 | win |
| Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Dell say "Nvidia" 5+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
Other 56% +$283
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | — |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | Yes | 10¢ | 1¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in April? | Yes | 78¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
Culture 67% +$172
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will 'Zootopia 2' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Sam Altman say "Creativity" or "Artist" on The Tonight Show on December 8? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$162 | win |
Weather 40% +$113
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Crypto 100% +$96
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will MrBeast say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the NYT DealBook Summit? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Bryan Johnson say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while tripping balls? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Shayne say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during 60 Minutes? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Geopolitics 50% +$68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 10¢ | +$9 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Elections 33% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "November 5th" or "Election" at the Kennedy Center Honors event? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Trump say "November 5th" or "Election" at the Kennedy Center Honors event? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Finance 50% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FedEx say "Truck" during earnings call? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Snowflake say "Hiring" during earnings call? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Dell say "Zoho" during earnings call? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Dell say "Dividend" 3+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
Esports 46% $-484
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant: GIANTX vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner | GIANTX | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: The QUBE Esports vs Change The Game - Map 1 Winner | The QUBE Esports | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner | 100 Thieves | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner | Alliance | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Valorant: SaD Esports vs QoR - Map 1 Winner | QoR | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs TDK - Map 2 Winner | TDK | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs RED Canids - Map 1 Winner | FOLHA AMARELA | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | Aurora Gaming | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Stallions Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Group Omega | Enterprise Esports | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner | Sinners | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
Sports 20% $-653
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-205 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-371 | loss |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Makhachev | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $105 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 71.5¢ | 81¢ | +$168 | $1,157 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 81¢ | +$140 | $811 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 39.5¢ | 62¢ | +$78 | $227 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 25.7¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $26 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 68.2¢ | 32¢ | $-26 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | $647 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | $-783 | $1,384 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | $201 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $44 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $55 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 36.1¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 31.2¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $57 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | $466 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $88 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $80 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 38.8¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $43 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 57.3¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $38 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $26 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 74.1¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $27 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Monday news conference? | No | 49.2¢ | 0¢ | $-124 | $133 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 6? | Yes | 22.3¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $43 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $34 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 50.9¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $229 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $35 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$470 | $1,337 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $1,358 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $807 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $511 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $93 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $2,151 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $650 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,976 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $34 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 80-99 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $250 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $53 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $58 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 40-59 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 03/04/2026 |