Roflan-ludoman

Geopolitics 60% +$129,464 $6,429,445 vol · 398 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	21¢	0¢	+$2,719	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-2,479	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$88	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	77¢	0¢	$-57,971	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	34¢	18¢	+$1,500	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	50¢	70¢	+$0	—
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-40	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	55¢	100¢	$-1,122	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	50¢	30¢	$-3,960	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	54¢	82¢	+$3,893	win

Other 62% +$62,541 $3,501,512 vol · 371 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	No	80¢	74¢	+$14	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	38¢	64¢	+$388	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	70¢	84¢	+$200	win
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$179	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	85¢	100¢	+$76	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	+$30	win
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$-10	loss
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	93¢	93¢	$-30	loss
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	61¢	80¢	$-278	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	+$1	win

Politics 61% +$10,913 $1,192,305 vol · 190 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	54¢	39¢	+$167	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$8	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	94¢	100¢	$-504	loss
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	87¢	90¢	+$145	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	30¢	16¢	$-61	loss
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	Yes	51¢	52¢	+$23	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	23¢	12¢	$-525	loss
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	71¢	77¢	+$55	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	39¢	58¢	+$390	win

Esports 59% +$7,002 $211,214 vol · 240 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: 1win vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	Zero Tenacity	36¢	100¢	+$848	win
Dota 2: 1win vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	1win	61¢	0¢	$-970	loss
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Tundra Esports	60¢	100¢	+$81	win
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Team Liquid	63¢	100¢	$-340	loss
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Aurora	47¢	0¢	+$271	win
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Vici Gaming	14¢	0¢	+$175	win
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	49¢	100¢	+$580	win
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Heroic	34¢	0¢	$-924	loss
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	64¢	100¢	$-112	loss
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	69¢	100¢	$-43	loss

Elections 63% +$3,803 $4,205,263 vol · 161 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	46¢	38¢	$-45	loss
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$15,694	win
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	$-15,725	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	23¢	14¢	$-163	loss
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	38¢	39¢	+$28	win
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	95¢	95¢	+$0	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	17¢	0¢	+$4,972	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	83¢	100¢	$-259	loss
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	67¢	0¢	$-2,010	loss
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	68¢	0¢	$-2,040	loss

Tech 60% +$2,439 $103,763 vol · 50 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	16¢	0¢	$-213	loss
Over $15M committed to the Solomon public sale?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$11	win
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO?	No	84¢	100¢	+$468	win
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale?	No	38¢	0¢	$-884	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	47¢	100¢	+$3,302	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	26¢	0¢	+$357	win
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	18¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	59¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	61¢	100¢	$-8	loss

Culture 100% +$94 $1,152 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$94	win

Mentions 12% $-27 $3,432 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?	No	65¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-4	loss

Finance 0% $-214 $1,269 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	$-70	loss
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-144	loss

Sports 29% $-223 $2,363 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	72¢	100¢	$-38	loss
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-81	loss
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-99	loss
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-82	loss
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Fritz	Alcaraz	94¢	100¢	+$47	win
Wimbledon: Alcaraz vs. Fritz	Fritz	9¢	0¢	$-45	loss

Crypto 70% $-5,508 $299,303 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	40¢	13¢	$-778	loss
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	34¢	0¢	$-9,468	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-676	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	48¢	0¢	$-5,246	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	52¢	100¢	+$482	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	12¢	0¢	$-388	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	50¢	0¢	$-500	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?	No	89¢	0¢	$-3,279	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	No	84¢	0¢	$-840	loss
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-484	loss

Economy 48% $-11,446 $215,478 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$110	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	94¢	100¢	$-9,106	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-2,829	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	40¢	0¢	$-7,387	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$14	win
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	$-1,110	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	44¢	0¢	$-110	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$240	win
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	No	22¢	0¢	$-2	loss