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0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451
0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
49.3%
251 W / 258 L
Total PnL
$16,808
realized $-145,701 · unrealized $162,509
Portfolio
$162,509
volume $24,045,345
Predictions
415
13.4/day · avg $57,941
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 48% +$76,407
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$19,678 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-967 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$875 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1,275 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$1,209 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$826 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-822 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 61¢ | 30¢ | $-477 | loss |
Elections 50% +$138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 3¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
Economy 67% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 63¢ | 91¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 9¢ | +$65 | win |
Politics 50% $-5,461
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2,408 | win |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 72¢ | 85¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 96¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 46¢ | 71¢ | +$247 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 53¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 17¢ | +$17 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 90¢ | $-37 | loss |
Other 53% $-43,971
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 20¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 74¢ | 85¢ | +$11 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$756 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 71¢ | 56¢ | $-630 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$1,612 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 20¢ | 37¢ | +$3,812 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-367 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 65¢ | 44¢ | $-14,337 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$257 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$681 | $54,859 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$449 | $2,995 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$274 | $1,726 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | $6,798 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 36.2¢ | 13¢ | $-117 | $3,851 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | $-614 | $3,594 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 26.1¢ | 100¢ | $-3,131 | $8,884 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-3,134 | $3,286 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 41.9¢ | 0¢ | $-25,383 | $29,922 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $-4,663 | $6,296 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $239 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | +$3,938 | $6,963 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-623 | $622 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 87¢ | +$26,227 | $51,578 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 56.4¢ | 0¢ | $-932 | $8,657 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 98¢ | +$19 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | $314 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $86 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-834 | $3,457 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$549 | $352 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $-222 | $222 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 55.2¢ | 100¢ | +$393 | $608 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1,360 | $4,599 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,956 | $3,551 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $-203 | $253 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 20.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38,169 | $43,444 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 46.2¢ | 87¢ | +$17,745 | $34,361 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2,392 | $2,878 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 49.9¢ | 13¢ | $-29,439 | $93,480 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3,581 | $5,240 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 30.5¢ | 0¢ | $-548 | $548 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 15-21, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19,901 | $2,808 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9,602 | $233 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 50.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7,338 | $12,905 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 47.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6,871 | $25,144 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | +$5,728 | $346 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 65.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4,621 | $101,012 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 59.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3,447 | $13,739 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 53.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,215 | $4,306 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,694 | $2,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 54.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,632 | $6,083 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,566 | $37,525 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,170 | $4,099 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,077 | $8,600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,689 | $36,043 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,623 | $14,114 | 31/03/2026 |