Win rate
78.1%
25 W / 7 L
Total PnL
$-809
realized $-50,941 · unrealized $50,132
Portfolio
$50,132
volume $81,155
Predictions
41
1.5/day · avg $1,979
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 100% +$1,282
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$985 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$11 | win |
Other 82% +$751
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | No | 11¢ | 71¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
Politics 71% +$475
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 40¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 56¢ | $-316 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 88¢ | 1¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$263 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | win |
Economy 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Geopolitics 62% $-3,133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 84¢ | $-526 | loss |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-2,622 | loss |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Recent Trades (32)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 99¢ | +$34 | $264 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $164 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$263 | $11,702 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $2,029 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $187 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $488 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2,622 | $4,974 | 15/04/2026 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15? | No | 96.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $23 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$985 | $3,115 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $330 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | No | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $565 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 99¢ | +$11 | $530 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $83 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $43 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 27.5¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | No | 94.7¢ | 96¢ | +$597 | $30,805 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | No | 96.8¢ | 97¢ | +$19 | $11,840 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 99¢ | $-14 | $4,070 | 30/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $141 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | $7,570 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $482 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 1¢ | $-96 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 56¢ | $-316 | $870 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 84¢ | $-526 | $2,304 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | No | 81.0¢ | 84¢ | +$63 | $1,468 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | No | 58.7¢ | 71¢ | $-43 | $676 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | No | 11.4¢ | 71¢ | $-45 | $129 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 40¢ | +$27 | $60 | 31/12/2026 |