Win rate
72.4%
764 W / 292 L
Total PnL
$-53,537
realized $-134,301 · unrealized $80,764
Portfolio
$80,764
volume $9,567,267
Predictions
1,051
11.0/day · avg $9,103
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 70% +$72,419
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | Yes | 28¢ | 14¢ | +$36 | win |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Robert De Zerbi be the next Chelsea manager? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Fetterman out by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 32¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 32¢ | $-67 | loss |
Politics 84% +$18,546
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 73¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 27¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 44¢ | 67¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 81¢ | 60¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces military action against Iran durring SOTU? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$405 | win |
Elections 73% +$15,507
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 80¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 39¢ | 38¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$386 | win |
| Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63¢ | 83¢ | +$635 | win |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-1,455 | loss |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-3,165 | loss |
Esports 100% +$3,090
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai and Speed win Fortnite before Monday? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$716 | win |
| Kai and Speed win Fortnite before Sunday? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1,481 | win |
| Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$495 | win |
| Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Kai and Speed win Fortnite before midnight? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
Culture 100% +$439
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$439 | win |
Mentions 75% +$392
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$414 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | loss |
Finance 75% $-58
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? | Down | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? | Down | 80¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Down | 48¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Up | 67¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
Tech 33% $-636
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Will Amazon dip to $192 in February? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-568 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on February 17? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 55% $-713
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn | Ethan Quinn | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-1,695 | loss |
| Copa Colsanitas: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Julieta Pareja | Julieta Pareja | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$451 | win |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$515 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$189 | win |
| Will Karoline Leavitt say Bitcoin/Crypto/Cryptocurrency | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | Up | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during speech on October 14? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-628 | loss |
Economy 33% $-1,456
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-1,369 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Labor Market" 10+ times during speech on October 14? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Powell say "Labor Market" 10+ times during speech on October 14? | Yes | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | loss |
Sports 63% $-14,580
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$23 | win |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez | Zeynep Sonmez | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-10,687 | loss |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Zeynep Sonmez vs Jasmine Paolini | Zeynep Sonmez | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$670 | win |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Paul | Tommy Paul | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Brandon Nakashima | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$2,574 | win |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe | Frances Tiafoe | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$729 | win |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Learner Tien vs Nishesh Basavareddy | Nishesh Basavareddy | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Alex Bolt | Alex Bolt | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
Geopolitics 80% $-129,194
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 51¢ | 68¢ | +$4,628 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 80¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 91¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 67¢ | +$12,825 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-9,575 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 82¢ | +$3 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 58¢ | 36¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 92¢ | $-50 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-14,911 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5) | Alcaraz | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | $700 | 17/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur | Valentin Vacherot | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$213 | $433 | 17/04/2026 |
| Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $203 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,424 | $6,140 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,220 | $2,780 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | +$966 | $4,044 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 69.3¢ | 100¢ | +$890 | $2,019 | 16/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | +$243 | $757 | 16/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik | Alexander Bublik | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | $770 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $2,388 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $89 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $680 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $236 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | $669 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | $-533 | $606 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | $-680 | $19,160 | 16/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud | Casper Ruud | 18.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1,446 | $1,468 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 85.2¢ | 0¢ | +$7,186 | $62,695 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini | Matteo Berrettini | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,981 | $10,371 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev | Alexander Zverev | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,944 | $3,316 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 94¢ | +$957 | $11,789 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$503 | $5,420 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik | Alexander Bublik | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $903 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Zizou Bergs | Zizou Bergs | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $297 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud | Casper Ruud | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $122 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev | Cristian Garin | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,385 | $2,640 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini | Daniil Medvedev | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,436 | $2,450 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | No | 65.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8,054 | $15,236 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$600 | $6,062 | 14/04/2026 |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Volynets vs Donna Vekic | Donna Vekic | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$537 | $1,451 | 14/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn | Ethan Quinn | 53.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,695 | $1,706 | 14/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana | Flavio Cobolli | 55.8¢ | 100¢ | +$947 | $1,195 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Tallon Griekspoor | Gael Monfils | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$376 | $424 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Matteo Arnaldi | Cristian Garin | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | $710 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges | Andrey Rublev | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$280 | $1,720 | 13/04/2026 |
| Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs Keegan Smith | Pavel Kotov | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $716 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi | Hubert Hurkacz | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $43 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Tomas Machac | Daniel Altmaier | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $260 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,925 | $11,216 | 12/04/2026 |
| Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Panna Udvardy | Marie Bouzkova | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$357 | $482 | 12/04/2026 |
| US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Paul | Tommy Paul | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $14,645 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63.1¢ | 83¢ | +$635 | $2,019 | 12/04/2026 |
| Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Emiliana Arango | Panna Udvardy | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$636 | $860 | 11/04/2026 |
| Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) | Fulham FC | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $47 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,020 | $1,707 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Botic van de Zandschulp | Botic van de Zandschulp | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-288 | $288 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$330 | $2,670 | 10/04/2026 |
| Credit One Charleston Open: McCartney Kessler vs Yulia Starodubtseva | Yulia Starodubtseva | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $528 | 10/04/2026 |