Nigel364

Politics 38% +$388 $2,314 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?	Yes	30¢	22¢	$-12	loss
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	Yes	10¢	100¢	+$227	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will Trump say "Out of NATO" or "Withdraw" during events with Rutte?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Trump out as President by March 31?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 9, 2026?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$33	win
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	8¢	0¢	+$10	win

Sports 50% +$111 $2,699 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets	Grizzlies	9¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Penguins vs. Bruins	Penguins	15¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Celtics vs. Clippers	Celtics	81¢	100¢	+$12	win
Seahawks vs. 49ers	Seahawks	79¢	100¢	+$8	win
Jazz vs. Warriors	Jazz	38¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Pistons vs. Jazz	Pistons	51¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Broncos vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	28¢	0¢	+$10	win
Broncos vs. Chiefs	Broncos	80¢	100¢	+$6	win
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Demoor	12¢	100¢	+$251	win
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-43	loss

Elections 100% +$38 $266 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?	Yes	61¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?	No	71¢	100¢	+$20	win
Canada election called by midnight?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win

Tech 100% +$23 $136 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?	No	85¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$2	win

Weather 40% $-37 $146 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Yes	53¢	30¢	$-13	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$14	win
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-20	loss

Economy 0% $-42 $236 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-42	loss

Mentions 0% $-161 $195 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-108	loss

Geopolitics 32% $-269 $2,390 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$47	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	81¢	78¢	$-1	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	17¢	100¢	+$959	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	1¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	29¢	100¢	+$50	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	2¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-208	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	15¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-2	loss
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-55	loss

Crypto 72% $-360 $8,124 vol · 174 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	83¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6PM ET	Up	3¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4PM ET	Up	8¢	0¢	+$51	win
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 3PM ET	Up	2¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	82¢	100¢	+$9	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	88¢	100¢	+$14	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	75¢	100¢	+$12	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	91¢	100¢	+$9	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	84¢	100¢	+$8	win
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	91¢	100¢	+$8	win

Other 38% $-1,142 $4,799 vol · 53 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$-33	loss
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	33¢	36¢	+$3	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	68¢	47¢	+$1	win
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	70¢	34¢	$-14	loss
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	No	68¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	No	9¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-10	loss