Win rate
59.2%
443 W / 306 L
Total PnL
$1,875
realized $984 · unrealized $891
Portfolio
$891
volume $276,162
Predictions
1,828
21.4/day · avg $151
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 60% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 5¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
Tech 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 0% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Geopolitics 56% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 59% $-1,456
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 18? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 18? | Yes | 28¢ | 26¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 18? | Yes | 25¢ | 25¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 18? | Yes | 27¢ | 35¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 18? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 18? | Yes | 36¢ | 30¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 18? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 18? | Yes | 36¢ | 32¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 18? | Yes | 26¢ | 14¢ | $-10 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 17? | Yes | 37.8¢ | 48¢ | +$3 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 17? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $34 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 32.5¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? | No | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $62 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 17? | Yes | 19.2¢ | 38¢ | +$10 | $33 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 32¢ | $-7 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17? | Yes | 30.4¢ | 29¢ | +$0 | $37 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17? | No | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 17? | Yes | 34.6¢ | 44¢ | +$6 | $25 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 17? | Yes | 28.2¢ | 48¢ | +$14 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 16? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $38 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 16? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 16? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $29 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 16? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $45 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 16? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 16? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $65 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be 80°F or higher on April 15? | Yes | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15? | Yes | 39.2¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15? | Yes | 27.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 15? | Yes | 32.4¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $23 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 15? | Yes | 33.4¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 15? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 15? | Yes | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 14? | Yes | 40.2¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $36 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 14? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 14? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $26 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 14? | No | 87.2¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $39 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 14? | No | 78.3¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on April 14? | No | 34.1¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $37 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14? | No | 85.2¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 14? | Yes | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $26 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 14? | Yes | 32.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $20 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 14? | Yes | 33.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $28 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 14? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $33 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 13? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $48 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13? | Yes | 38.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $26 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13? | Yes | 38.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 13? | Yes | 39.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 13? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 13? | Yes | 39.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 13? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 13? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 13? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on April 13? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 13? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13? | Yes | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $24 | 13/04/2026 |