Win rate
98.3%
3890 W / 67 L
Total PnL
$-303
realized $-7,470 · unrealized $7,167
Portfolio
$7,167
volume $2,596,722
Predictions
4,965
49.1/day · avg $523
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 99% +$367
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leavitt say "President Xi" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Tax cut" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Egg" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 16, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Trump" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Two weeks" this week? (April 12) | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 95% +$318
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hegseth say "AI" or "Cyber" during press conference? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Hegseth say "Objective" during press conference? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the rally on Saturday? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Melania say "Initiative" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Melania say "Son" or "Barron" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Michigan visit? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3PM ET | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 95% +$73
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Rutte say "Drone" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Artificial intelligence / AI" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Melania say "NATO" during statement on April 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" at the rally on Saturday? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Melania say "Nuclear" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Iran" during Michigan visit? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Vance say "Israel" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vance say "Nuclear" during his Rocky Mount visit? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 67% +$34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Melania say "Movie" during statement on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
Tech 100% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the rally on Saturday? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the next White House Press Briefing? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Melania say "Soccer" during statement on April 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Vance say "Inflation" 3+ times during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Finance 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance say "Stock Market" during the March for Life? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 96% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Over $12M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Karoline Leavitt be 35 or more minutes late to the next press briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Melania say "April" during statement on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Weather 99% $-1,050
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 19? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 72°F or higher on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on April 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $698 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $398 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $200 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 17? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 96°F or higher on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $299 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 17? | No | 99.1¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $698 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $551 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 17? | No | 99.1¢ | 98¢ | $-3 | $412 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $398 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 17? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $393 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $360 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $314 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 17? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $298 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $299 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $298 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $299 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $279 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on April 17? | No | 99.2¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $270 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $249 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $206 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on April 17? | No | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $200 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $398 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $268 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $199 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on April 17? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $83 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or higher on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 17? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $61 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,012 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Europe" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $202 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Budget" or "Spending" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $221 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $260 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $497 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Trump" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $320 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $380 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 16? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $297 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 16, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $51 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 16? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $434 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "GDP" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $218 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $298 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 16? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $298 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on April 16? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $398 | 16/04/2026 |