thesandman

Geopolitics 42% +$647 $8,002 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	30¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	15¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	26¢	30¢	+$7	win
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	86¢	97¢	$-2	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	17¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?	Yes	60¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Iran leadership change by March 31?	No	60¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Iran leadership change by March 31?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-46	loss

Tech 42% +$362 $1,182 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of January?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$176	win
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of January?	No	10¢	0¢	+$69	win
Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-103	loss
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	60¢	100¢	+$141	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	32¢	100¢	+$140	win
OpenAI social app in 2025?	Yes	52¢	100¢	$-2	loss
OpenAI social app in 2025?	No	47¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Dell say "Nvidia" 5+ times during earnings call?	No	41¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will NVIDIA say "VR / Virtual Reality" during earnings call?	No	75¢	100¢	+$3	win

Elections 38% $-104 $1,639 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	36¢	34¢	$-11	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	92¢	100¢	$-26	loss
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-120	loss
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?	No	87¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?	No	9¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$58	win
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	86¢	100¢	$-194	loss

Weather 33% $-124 $303 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 24?	Yes	71¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 23?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$4	win
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	15¢	0¢	$-121	loss

Culture 50% $-265 $758 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	17¢	0¢	+$78	win
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	46¢	0¢	$-219	loss
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	79¢	100¢	$-71	loss
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-63	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$7	win

Finance 41% $-980 $3,656 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12?	Up	58¢	0¢	$-58	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?	Up	59¢	0¢	$-42	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9?	Down	45¢	0¢	$-50	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5?	Up	22¢	0¢	$-22	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 30?	Down	95¢	100¢	+$5	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?	Up	74¢	0¢	$-81	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 27?	Up	88¢	100¢	+$13	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?	Up	28¢	100¢	+$111	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23?	Up	44¢	100¢	+$122	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23?	Down	41¢	0¢	$-135	loss

Politics 33% $-1,228 $5,433 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	27¢	48¢	+$66	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	71¢	70¢	$-188	loss
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?	No	88¢	100¢	+$39	win
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?	Yes	32¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will Trump sue the BBC?	No	77¢	0¢	$-144	loss
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?	No	39¢	0¢	$-156	loss
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-225	loss
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?	No	37¢	0¢	$-332	loss
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-308	loss

Sports 43% $-1,501 $57,724 vol · 221 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	58¢	56¢	$-16	loss
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	38¢	44¢	+$29	win
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	10¢	5¢	$-33	loss
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	7¢	2¢	$-21	loss
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-139	loss
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	74¢	100¢	$-36	loss
Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5	Over	48¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Mavericks vs. Bucks	Mavericks	44¢	0¢	$-133	loss
Nets vs. Lakers	Lakers	93¢	100¢	+$0	—
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	Grizzlies	56¢	100¢	$-54	loss

Economy 33% $-1,559 $3,744 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	11¢	0¢	$-118	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$12	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	88¢	100¢	$-171	loss
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-1,050	loss
Will the Philippines win Miss Universe 2025?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-228	loss
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?	No	82¢	100¢	+$51	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	49¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	56¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	62¢	100¢	$-72	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	74¢	100¢	$-60	loss

Other 45% $-1,867 $31,792 vol · 117 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	60¢	100¢	+$44	win
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Yes	10¢	6¢	$-67	loss
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	43¢	54¢	+$9	win
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	71¢	64¢	$-173	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	36¢	36¢	+$99	win
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	24¢	40¢	+$150	win
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	63¢	60¢	$-103	loss
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	31¢	32¢	+$1	win
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$78	win

Crypto 43% $-24,137 $176,405 vol · 552 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	28¢	36¢	+$93	win
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	60¢	64¢	$-50	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2PM ET	Down	36¢	100¢	+$66	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2PM ET	Up	54¢	0¢	$-189	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3PM ET	Up	41¢	100¢	+$38	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6PM ET	Up	56¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10AM ET	Up	89¢	100¢	+$11	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1PM ET	Down	54¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3PM ET	Down	42¢	100¢	+$40	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10AM ET	Up	76¢	100¢	+$37	win