Win rate
53.0%
80 W / 71 L
Total PnL
$-41,129
realized $-45,603 · unrealized $4,474
Portfolio
$4,474
volume $442,595
Predictions
203
2.2/day · avg $2,180
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/04/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 58% +$461
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 66¢ | 72¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-297 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 24¢ | 42¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 87¢ | 40¢ | $-497 | loss |
| Trump-Epstein Parlay | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Culture 50% +$428
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$560 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | loss |
Finance 100% +$51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 50% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 85¢ | 51¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Ethereum all time high before October? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Bitcoin all time high before July? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the price of Solana be greater than $150 on June 27? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Tech 100% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 80% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 24? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 97-98°F on June 24? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on June 23? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 55% $-1,255
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | 39¢ | 36¢ | $-23 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 2¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 51¢ | +$195 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 35¢ | +$14 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 79¢ | +$53 | win |
Geopolitics 49% $-6,307
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-1,536 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 40¢ | 16¢ | $-236 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 30¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 49¢ | 78¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 8¢ | $-28 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-1,073 | loss |
Elections 11% $-34,482
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-158 | loss |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-5,004 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-27,581 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$542 | $1,794 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $2,727 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $1,226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $533 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $334 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $243 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | $255 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 56.9¢ | 0¢ | $-463 | $591 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 28.7¢ | 0¢ | $-474 | $474 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 41.9¢ | 100¢ | +$560 | $405 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | $133 | 15/03/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $1,212 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 86.1¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | $445 | 28/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 35.9¢ | 100¢ | +$478 | $306 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 61.1¢ | 0¢ | $-158 | $158 | 08/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $1,031 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $87 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? | Yes | 38.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | $338 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-829 | $834 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,010 | $1,220 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $1,153 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $424 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $470 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | No | 52.7¢ | 100¢ | +$842 | $1,203 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? | No | 60.2¢ | 100¢ | +$535 | $811 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump-Epstein Parlay | No | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $219 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $62 | 31/12/2025 |
| Mark Kelly charged by December 31? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $62 | 31/12/2025 |
| GTA VI released in 2025? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $694 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $82 | 31/12/2025 |
| Larry Summers in jail before 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $114 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $20 | 31/12/2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $20 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $31 | 31/12/2025 |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | $224 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump out as President in 2025? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $-310 | $310 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-482 | $1,045 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $22 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Trump apologize for his 'punishable by DEATH' post by November 30? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $236 | 30/11/2025 |