ArchCap

Other 80% +$187 $1,594 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	18¢	18¢	+$44	win
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	22¢	23¢	+$18	win
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	28¢	22¢	$-6	loss
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	60¢	72¢	+$5	win

Geopolitics 55% +$121 $1,323 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$-1	loss
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	10¢	6¢	$-8	loss
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-32	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	59¢	64¢	+$50	win
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	37¢	84¢	+$9	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	80¢	100¢	$-11	loss
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	Yes	14¢	0¢	+$2	win

Economy 100% +$4 $88 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	12¢	12¢	+$4	win

Tech 0% $-2 $52 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	87¢	84¢	$-2	loss

Politics 0% $-35 $36 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	11¢	1¢	$-35	loss