Papuche

Geopolitics 100% +$34 $301 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	57¢	78¢	+$18	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	56¢	60¢	+$16	win

Politics 33% $-18 $311 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	43¢	48¢	+$7	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	45¢	100¢	$-22	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	74¢	74¢	$-2	loss

Other 33% $-55 $236 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	47¢	24¢	$-22	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	84¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	66¢	98¢	+$30	win

Elections 17% $-214 $992 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	38¢	36¢	$-4	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	10¢	$-136	loss
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	35¢	100¢	+$42	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	18¢	$-16	loss