Win rate
66.2%
96 W / 49 L
Total PnL
$11
realized $-595 · unrealized $607
Portfolio
$607
volume $82,456
Predictions
790
7.1/day · avg $104
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 76% +$491
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 41¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 55¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 34¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 64% +$153
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Elon register any party before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 66¢ | 27¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 44¢ | 59¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | No | 84¢ | 96¢ | $-16 | loss |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? | No | 70¢ | 83¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 64¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 78¢ | 66¢ | $-8 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Elections 75% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 59¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 77¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 63¢ | 55¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $-2 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Politics 46% $-526
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 68¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in March? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | loss |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $175 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $103 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | $101 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 63.1¢ | 55¢ | +$2 | $25 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 28.5¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? | No | 52.4¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 69.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | No | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 36.2¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 38.3¢ | 50¢ | +$28 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | No | 55.3¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | No | 57.8¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 93.5¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in March? | No | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February 2026? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $87 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28? | No | 77.1¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 55.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $32 | 24/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026? | No | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | $145 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | No | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026? | No | 27.6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | No | 35.1¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $53 | 31/01/2026 |