Win rate
40.7%
11 W / 16 L
Total PnL
$-37
realized $-909 · unrealized $872
Portfolio
$872
volume $159,171
Predictions
41
1.5/day · avg $3,882
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Sports 60% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 0% +$-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 50% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Economy 50% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 0% $-16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 40% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | No | 87¢ | 99¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (45)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $4,061 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $4,471 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $909 | 29/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 97.8¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $883 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $971 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 96.6¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $1,891 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.9¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $883 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | $78 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 97¢ | $-3 | $832 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $881 | 24/05/2026 |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $4,065 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $4,065 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | $155 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $875 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | No | 87.0¢ | 99¢ | $-21 | $860 | 16/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 99¢ | $-9 | $882 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | $95 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | No | 94.2¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | $551 | 12/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92.3¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | $963 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.6¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $881 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87.0¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $1,431 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | $102 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | $911 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 94.4¢ | 96¢ | $-10 | $1,002 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 86.3¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | $993 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | $25 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $900 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | $972 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5.2¢ | 5¢ | $-2 | $100 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91.8¢ | 91¢ | $-5 | $876 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92.2¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | $883 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 3¢ | $-1 | $41 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 4.6¢ | 5¢ | $-0 | $45 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 82.9¢ | 83¢ | +$-0 | $1,840 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72.5¢ | 73¢ | +$1 | $1,746 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.4¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | $874 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $4,064 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $41 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $883 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $884 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 97.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $842 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91.2¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | $972 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $3,380 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 96.3¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $4,065 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97.3¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | $2,650 | 07/11/2028 |