bismuth

Geopolitics 84% +$2,311 $49,156 vol · 51 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	68¢	100¢	$-220	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	70¢	72¢	+$14	win
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	96¢	100¢	+$13	win
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	80¢	86¢	+$69	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	89¢	91¢	+$13	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	76¢	84¢	+$30	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	76¢	94¢	+$575	win
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	84¢	26¢	$-67	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	84¢	78¢	$-12	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	75¢	42¢	+$98	win

Elections 85% +$670 $19,164 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	82¢	84¢	+$25	win
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$-127	loss
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	78¢	75¢	$-15	loss
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	96¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?	No	84¢	100¢	+$295	win
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$16	win

Other 72% +$359 $27,044 vol · 60 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	5¢	0¢	$-114	loss
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	99¢	98¢	$-2	loss
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	75¢	80¢	+$16	win
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	83¢	80¢	$-7	loss
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$151	win
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$18	win
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	88¢	94¢	+$28	win
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?	No	87¢	90¢	+$6	win
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	Yes	45¢	4¢	$-47	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	90¢	99¢	+$10	win

Economy 100% +$293 $9,816 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$27	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$119	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$60	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$39	win
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$49	win

Culture 100% +$55 $2,282 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will Adolescence win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$9	win

Sports 100% +$23 $506 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win

Mentions 100% +$18 $558 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?	No	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win

Tech 100% +$12 $336 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31?	No	97¢	100¢	+$6	win

Crypto 68% $-1,340 $23,949 vol · 68 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	95¢	100¢	+$146	win
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	20¢	0¢	$-159	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?	No	70¢	0¢	$-114	loss
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	91¢	100¢	+$45	win
Cardano ETF in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?	Yes	83¢	100¢	$-12	loss
Will Solana reach $250 in November?	No	97¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?	No	73¢	0¢	$-146	loss
Will Solana dip to $200 in October?	No	49¢	0¢	$-52	loss

Politics 87% $-1,433 $22,012 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$115	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	81¢	92¢	+$25	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	79¢	84¢	+$25	win
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	78¢	77¢	$-1	loss
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	94¢	100¢	$-111	loss
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	76¢	40¢	$-1,851	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	96¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	94¢	100¢	+$127	win
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?	Yes	35¢	0¢	+$119	win
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	83¢	100¢	+$85	win