PoliAlespolign

Geopolitics 60% +$503 $7,793 vol · 58 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	61¢	84¢	+$223	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	28¢	30¢	+$3	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	21¢	18¢	$-4	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	77¢	90¢	$-2	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	91¢	96¢	+$3	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	12¢	8¢	$-41	loss
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	No	94¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	91¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	74¢	88¢	+$26	win

Esports 42% +$368 $1,751 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner	DN SOOPers	26¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 2 Winner	ZETA DIVISION	46¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	TYLOO	54¢	100¢	+$95	win
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	G2 Esports	62¢	0¢	$-120	loss
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner	CCG Esports	21¢	0¢	$-30	loss
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner	EDward Gaming	52¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner	Eternal Fire	41¢	100¢	+$158	win
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Playoffs	Dplus	48¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	JD Gaming	48¢	0¢	$-78	loss
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Top Esports	39¢	100¢	+$113	win

Tech 86% +$203 $1,594 vol · 42 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Meta (META) finish week of April 13 above $660?	Yes	87¢	94¢	+$3	win
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 16?	Down	82¢	100¢	+$14	win
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 16?	Up	84¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 16?	No	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 15?	Yes	55¢	100¢	+$27	win
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 15?	Up	84¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on April 14?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$3	win
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 14?	Up	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on April 14?	No	90¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on April 14?	No	90¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Weather 100% +$24 $22 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5	Over	47¢	100¢	+$24	win

Elections 67% +$11 $258 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10¢	10¢	+$0	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	96¢	73¢	$-7	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	80¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	83¢	81¢	$-1	loss

Crypto 100% +$3 $25 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?	No	91¢	100¢	+$3	win

Politics 36% $-42 $816 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	56¢	57¢	$-19	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	95¢	50¢	$-1	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	No	71¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$23	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	83¢	100¢	+$0	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	No	67¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	77¢	0¢	$-23	loss

Sports 44% $-60 $331 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 15?	Down	30¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Celtics vs. Hawks	Hawks	52¢	100¢	+$28	win
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)	Warriors	50¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)	Rockets	49¢	100¢	+$44	win
Celtics vs. Hornets	Celtics	45¢	100¢	+$29	win
Magic vs. Raptors	Magic	48¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Spread: Clippers (-15.5)	Clippers	53¢	0¢	$-27	loss
76ers vs. Hornets	Hornets	69¢	0¢	$-35	loss

Finance 62% $-142 $2,052 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	No	96¢	99¢	+$1	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	59¢	69¢	+$10	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?	Up	60¢	100¢	+$53	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?	Down	33¢	0¢	$-114	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15?	Up	71¢	100¢	+$10	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15?	Down	27¢	0¢	$-70	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14?	Up	86¢	100¢	+$8	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13?	Up	67¢	100¢	+$24	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13?	Down	39¢	0¢	$-133	loss

Other 49% $-756 $6,106 vol · 77 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	77¢	76¢	$-1	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$-0	loss
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	65¢	64¢	$-1	loss
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	No	65¢	50¢	$-6	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	74¢	64¢	$-4	loss
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	95¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	34¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30?	No	76¢	86¢	+$4	win