chillbold

Other 83% +$42 $1,185 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	55¢	40¢	$-82	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?	No	93¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$13	win

Crypto 100% +$4 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$4	win

Economy 100% +$4 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$4	win

Weather 50% $-88 $418 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?	Yes	59¢	0¢	$-118	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$30	win

Geopolitics 78% $-548 $6,561 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$102	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$240	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	65¢	78¢	+$54	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	67¢	57¢	$-39	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	51¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	95¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-75	loss
US forces enter Iran by March 3?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win