Win rate
12.8%
46 W / 314 L
Total PnL
$-1,171
realized $-2,277 · unrealized $1,107
Portfolio
$1,107
volume $300,133
Predictions
777
77.1/day · avg $386
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
Weather 20% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 25% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 72¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $-0 | loss |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 94¢ | 18¢ | $-13 | loss |
Tech 22% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | — |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | — |
| GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$-0 | — |
Economy 12% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $-7 | loss |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 69¢ | 74¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | loss |
Sports 28% $-47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | No | 14¢ | 14¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 67¢ | 53¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | Yes | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | Yes | 68¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 93¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | Yes | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 5% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day? | No | 83¢ | 85¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $-3 | loss |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | — |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 13¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | loss |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 30¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 77¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 19% $-65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$-0 | — |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 26¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
Politics 7% $-126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | Yes | 69¢ | 65¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 26¢ | 35¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72¢ | 73¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 78¢ | 79¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 50¢ | 52¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 16% $-319
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 77¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? | Yes | 75¢ | 77¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat? | No | 85¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat? | Yes | 72¢ | 74¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 7¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat? | Yes | 83¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-04 House seat? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 8% $-392
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 59¢ | 60¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 27¢ | 34¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 72¢ | 66¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 81¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | win |
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | No | 68¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $105 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 95¢ | $-29 | $184 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 95¢ | $-35 | $288 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $98 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $74 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | $326 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $162 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $180 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $240 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 21.0¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | $63 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $580 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $118 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | No | 89.0¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $89 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $69 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 76.0¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $231 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $140 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $43 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $614 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | $142 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $69 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $397 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $43 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $195 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $89 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $565 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $261 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $219 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $661 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 99¢ | $-8 | $606 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 99¢ | $-9 | $222 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $234 | 12/04/2026 |