Win rate
73.9%
383 W / 135 L
Total PnL
$2,516
realized $-549 · unrealized $3,064
Portfolio
$3,064
volume $149,704
Predictions
723
9.2/day · avg $207
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 68% +$628
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? | Yes | 15¢ | 2¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 18? | Yes | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 18? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? | No | 68¢ | 67¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 17? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
Mentions 89% +$398
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 100% +$269
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 85¢ | 93¢ | +$30 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Esports 71% +$198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner | LNG Esports | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner | T1 | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Top Esports | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Gen.G | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Tech 92% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | SpaceX | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | win |
| Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 95¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of December? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 77% +$128
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 79¢ | 88¢ | +$14 | win |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 93¢ | +$21 | win |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | Yes | 67¢ | 83¢ | +$46 | win |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | 91¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 100% +$70
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Culture 100% +$68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
Geopolitics 81% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | win |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Economy 67% $-74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Politics 74% $-590
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-411 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 75% $-867
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will GMGN launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | Down | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-314 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10AM ET | Down | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET | Up | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 18? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 17¢ | $-1 | $33 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 2¢ | $-34 | $52 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 18? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | $56 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 18? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $41 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? | No | 68.2¢ | 67¢ | $-1 | $32 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 18? | Yes | 75.7¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | $21 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17? | Yes | 47.9¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $113 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 17? | Yes | 39.3¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $58 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 52.5¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $64 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 17? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $46 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $41 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15? | No | 63.4¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on April 15? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 15? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $121 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14? | No | 75.1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $43 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 14? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $64 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 14? | Yes | 78.7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $83 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 14? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | +$63 | $93 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 13? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 100¢ | +$383 | $90 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 12? | Yes | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 11? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $41 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 11? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $63 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11? | No | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $69 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10? | No | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $28 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $25 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 10? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $45 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $83 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 9? | Yes | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $72 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 9? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $33 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $32 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 8? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 7? | No | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | $133 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 7? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $52 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7? | Yes | 25.6¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $85 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 6? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $101 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $23 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 5? | Yes | 25.3¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | $131 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 5? | Yes | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 5? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 5? | No | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 4? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on April 3? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $120 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 3? | Yes | 77.6¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | $203 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 3? | No | 72.8¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $87 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 3? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $53 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $22 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 02/04/2026 |