Win rate
75.9%
173 W / 55 L
Total PnL
$-949
realized $-1,666 · unrealized $717
Portfolio
$717
volume $216,284
Predictions
270
6.3/day · avg $801
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Economy 91% +$547
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 62¢ | 99¢ | +$290 | win |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | No | 35¢ | 34¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 58¢ | 66¢ | +$149 | win |
Crypto 76% +$121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | No | 49¢ | 56¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 44¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | No | 93¢ | 91¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $160 in April? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in March? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
Culture 100% +$102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 100% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Finance 82% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 70¢ | +$27 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24? | Up | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? | Up | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
Elections 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 24¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 71% $-97
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 55¢ | 82¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 70¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 97¢ | +$5 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $-2 | loss |
Weather 67% $-222
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 18? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 18? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 17? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 17? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17? | Yes | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 12? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on March 11? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 63% $-278
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 83¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 57¢ | 99¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 12¢ | 1¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 82% $-1,097
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China coup attempt before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$13 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto | Nothing | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $258 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $573 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $499 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $107 | 17/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,724 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $171 | 15/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $500 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 15? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 94.1¢ | 13¢ | $-54 | $94 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $395 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $55 | 10/04/2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 10? | Down | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,632 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,251 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $118 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $79 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of April 6 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $438 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $69 Week of April 6 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $676 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $85 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $1,805 | 09/04/2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 09/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $194 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? | Down | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $509 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 97.3¢ | 13¢ | $-39 | $97 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96.1¢ | 0¢ | $-526 | $574 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in March? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $98 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $186 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hang Seng (HSI) hit 18600 (LOW) in March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $864 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in March? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $124 | 01/04/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $1,285 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $1,611 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $521 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $460 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $356 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $255 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $338 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,054 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $501 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $155 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $166 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $439 | 31/03/2026 |
| People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $724 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 76.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $973 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $166 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $146 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 66.8¢ | 86¢ | +$7 | $304 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |