Win rate
51.0%
724 W / 696 L
Total PnL
$-94
realized $-7,860 · unrealized $7,765
Portfolio
$7,765
volume $536,482
Predictions
2,244
32.8/day · avg $239
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Mentions 47% +$445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$203 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Crypto 47% +$246
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 35¢ | 40¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? | No | 11¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 16¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 80 in 2026? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | 90k | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 28¢ | 42¢ | +$13 | win |
| USD1 depeg by December 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 28¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | No | 35¢ | 32¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 59% +$210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | Yes | 30¢ | 6¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? | No | 70¢ | 88¢ | +$7 | win |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 69¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 54¢ | 7¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Geopolitics 50% +$183
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 15¢ | 18¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 30¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 64¢ | 31¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
Culture 65% +$121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | win |
| Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 59m? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
Elections 56% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 40¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 60¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 31¢ | 22¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 51¢ | 56¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat? | Yes | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-3 | loss |
Weather 40% $-84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 14? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 13? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 13? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 12? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 10? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 10? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Tech 43% $-150
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 27? | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 26? | Down | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on February 24? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 17? | Down | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
Sports 60% $-193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 57¢ | 52¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Brooks Rogowski be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? | No | 51¢ | 95¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Canucks vs. Oilers | Oilers | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Jets vs. Utah | Utah | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Kings vs. Kraken | Kings | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Rangers vs. Panthers | Panthers | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Finance 23% $-221
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 30¢ | $-19 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? | Up | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? | Up | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? | Down | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 5? | Up | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
Politics 49% $-544
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 35¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 16¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | US Strikes Iran | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 10¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 90¢ | +$9 | win |
Other 55% $-655
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 12¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 9¢ | 7¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 26¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 44¢ | 57¢ | +$7 | win |
| Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 95¢ | +$7 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canucks vs. Oilers | Oilers | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? | Yes | 47.2¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Jets vs. Utah | Utah | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $62 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 54.1¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $79 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? | No | 95.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 42.5¢ | 10¢ | $-8 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5) | Cusco FC | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Kings vs. Kraken | Kings | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $48 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $39 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 14? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $54 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5) | Estudiantes de La Plata | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Rangers vs. Panthers | Panthers | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 13? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $38 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 13? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $55 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Pistons (-13.5) | Pacers | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 0 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Göztepe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 12? | Yes | 22.9¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 | Over | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 99¢ | +$41 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 65.0¢ | 99¢ | +$21 | $270 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Spread: Warriors (-11.5) | Kings | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Spread: Magic (-14.5) | Magic | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Kiwoom DRX | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 11? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $35 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? | No | 12.9¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Suns | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? | Yes | 19.9¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |