Win rate
67.7%
23 W / 11 L
Total PnL
$-4,765
realized $-127,025 · unrealized $122,260
Portfolio
$122,260
volume $4,254,700
Predictions
34
1.1/day · avg $125,138
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 86% +$21,676
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$733 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 92¢ | +$201 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$648 | win |
Geopolitics 58% +$4,183
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 80¢ | 96¢ | +$72 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 66¢ | 8¢ | $-471 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 60¢ | $-12,471 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4,333 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 86¢ | +$5,601 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-1,398 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$587 | win |
Other 43% +$2,842
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 62¢ | 82¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 80¢ | 52¢ | +$727 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | $-1,537 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-371 | loss |
Finance 100% +$134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$134 | win |
Recent Trades (34)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4,239 | $49,358 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$843 | $4,928 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 73.7¢ | 9¢ | $-420 | $3,897 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 71.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,398 | $9,701 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,496 | $21,234 | 14/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4,621 | $53,998 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$587 | $2,438 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$648 | $5,465 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$134 | $342 | 02/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 76.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8,826 | $34,759 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 59.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3,875 | $5,657 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$261 | $1,610 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 27.1¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $2,698 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | $-371 | $1,239 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 41.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1,537 | $5,525 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4,231 | $20,489 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 81.5¢ | 99¢ | +$270 | $1,522 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 68.4¢ | 86¢ | +$5,601 | $21,743 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 76.4¢ | 62¢ | $-3,226 | $20,371 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4,333 | $39,444 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 92¢ | +$201 | $919 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | $79 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 71.7¢ | 60¢ | $-12,471 | $73,338 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 76.1¢ | 75¢ | $-429 | $28,446 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 46.0¢ | 40¢ | +$555 | $29,596 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 73.5¢ | 92¢ | +$3,338 | $17,937 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 90¢ | +$1,885 | $18,547 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$977 | $4,488 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$733 | $6,254 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 80.2¢ | 52¢ | +$727 | $17,048 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 66.0¢ | 8¢ | $-471 | $2,063 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 96¢ | +$72 | $508 | 15/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 82¢ | $-22 | $196 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70.0¢ | 78¢ | $-197 | $2,754 | 31/12/2026 |