Win rate
72.2%
78 W / 30 L
Total PnL
$432
realized $-1,184 · unrealized $1,616
Portfolio
$1,616
volume $29,896
Predictions
170
3.3/day · avg $176
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 94% +$413
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 86¢ | +$23 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 100% +$110
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 8¢ | 11¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Economy 50% +$99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
Politics 80% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 13¢ | 22¢ | +$66 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 53¢ | 61¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 30% $-59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 67¢ | +$22 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 18¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 30¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 20¢ | 3¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 67¢ | 95¢ | +$15 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 0% $-76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
Other 64% $-154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 63¢ | 56¢ | $-4 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 77¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 54¢ | 48¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | $-68 | $229 | 31/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 23/03/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $120 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $68 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $66 | 16/01/2026 |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $647 | 01/01/2026 |
| Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? | No | 54.7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $88 | 01/01/2026 |
| Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $107 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $40 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $40 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $57 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $28 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $86 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 29.8¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $76 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 85.4¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | $326 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? | Yes | 26.7¢ | 100¢ | +$322 | $117 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $241 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 7? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $26 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | $228 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $71 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 26/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $67 | 21/11/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,186 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $227 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 11/11/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $1,132 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $918 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | No | 81.1¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $341 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $46 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $205 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $197 | 31/10/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $557 | 31/10/2025 |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $121 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on October 30? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $350 | 30/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $541 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October 20? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $462 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $418 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $443 | 10/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 9? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $222 | 09/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $442 | 06/10/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 30/09/2025 |