Win rate
90.4%
713 W / 76 L
Total PnL
$32,781
realized $-209,167 · unrealized $241,948
Portfolio
$241,948
volume $16,396,845
Predictions
1,399
10.7/day · avg $11,720
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/09/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 93% +$27,498
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | 80k | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$528 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will XRP dip to $1.60 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $120 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 62¢ | $-77 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $40 in April? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 86% +$5,944
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$3,386 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 16¢ | +$423 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 42¢ | 12¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$3,327 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 6¢ | +$841 | win |
Politics 88% +$2,533
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$293 | win |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$132 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi in February 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Culture 71% +$1,235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$1,132 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1,129 | loss |
Tech 91% +$915
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Amazon reach $320 in January? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Meta dip to $470 in January? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Google reach $420 in January? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tesla reach $645 in January? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
Elections 78% +$817
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$9,218 | win |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$405 | win |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 100% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $40? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 5 above $140? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 5 – Jan 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 29 above $120? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 29 above $40? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of December? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of December? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $105-$110 in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
Finance 100% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Strategy (MSTR) be the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Other 91% $-6,228
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Superform FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Hyperlend FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Tabi FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96.7¢ | 0¢ | $-169 | $169 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$307 | $16,591 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $10,681 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $16,229 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $30 in March? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $11,902 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $7,271 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $7,199 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $9,892 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $7,303 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $5,669 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $3,865 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $40 in March? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $1,656 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,382 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $5,160 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $160 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $2,404 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,516 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $2,473 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,743 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,250 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $758 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,252 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,218 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $517 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $950 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $960 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,928 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $357 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $212 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $64 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $297 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $20 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $297 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $169 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $198 | 01/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 01/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,141 | $35,820 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,905 | $72,265 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,450 | $48,377 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$685 | $37,885 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$525 | $68,099 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | $14,997 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | $7,872 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $8,850 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $4,750 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $4,996 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $5,129 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $8,430 | 31/03/2026 |