0xf27de6607Cbd11011

Other 66% +$8,562 $57,009 vol · 158 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?	Yes	36¢	34¢	$-3	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	30¢	38¢	+$134	win
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Yes	18¢	20¢	+$187	win
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	47¢	80¢	+$179	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$95	win
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	55¢	59¢	+$87	win
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?	No	23¢	0¢	+$67	win
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	No	71¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	No	8¢	10¢	+$45	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	41¢	56¢	+$36	win

Politics 72% +$4,099 $24,808 vol · 91 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	1¢	+$1	win
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?	Yes	4¢	6¢	+$16	win
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$31	win
Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	70¢	89¢	+$2	win
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?	No	72¢	95¢	+$4	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	45¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?	Yes	14¢	3¢	$-5	loss
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	No	5¢	6¢	+$3	win
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	39¢	47¢	+$72	win

Crypto 94% +$3,093 $16,413 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	7¢	8¢	+$4	win
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	57¢	61¢	+$11	win
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	No	57¢	100¢	+$345	win
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	No	64¢	100¢	+$147	win

Elections 73% +$1,837 $18,655 vol · 80 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	3¢	6¢	+$83	win
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	35¢	100¢	+$122	win
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	59¢	64¢	+$26	win
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	12¢	36¢	+$7	win
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	24¢	12¢	$-2	loss
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	54¢	37¢	$-8	loss
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	36¢	34¢	$-10	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	54¢	44¢	$-60	loss
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	10¢	14¢	+$81	win
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	8¢	8¢	+$8	win

Tech 75% +$1,430 $4,152 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Yes	53¢	62¢	+$114	win
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	19¢	45¢	+$50	win
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	12¢	5¢	+$0	—
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	6¢	14¢	+$453	win
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	18¢	5¢	$-46	loss
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?	No	12¢	0¢	+$69	win
GPT ads by March 31?	Yes	16¢	100¢	+$261	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	54¢	100¢	$-16	loss
GPT ads by March 31?	No	10¢	0¢	$-96	loss
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Culture 70% +$258 $363 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$59	win
Will 28 Years Later win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Finance 50% $-51 $2,908 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	40¢	48¢	+$24	win
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Yes	23¢	12¢	$-29	loss
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	32¢	30¢	+$113	win
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	15¢	100¢	+$183	win
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	53¢	96¢	+$112	win
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	45¢	4¢	$-3	loss
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	59¢	0¢	$-204	loss
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	8¢	0¢	$-215	loss
Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?	No	55¢	100¢	+$1	win
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-47	loss

Economy 25% $-91 $236 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-42	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	No	19¢	0¢	$-115	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$68	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Geopolitics 64% $-3,798 $75,132 vol · 214 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	13¢	10¢	+$6	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	27¢	0¢	$-178	loss
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	68¢	91¢	+$76	win
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	51¢	55¢	+$68	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	32¢	76¢	+$67	win
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	42¢	82¢	+$52	win
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	54¢	84¢	+$6	win
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	17¢	13¢	+$5	win
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	61¢	78¢	+$3	win