Win rate
39.0%
309 W / 484 L
Total PnL
$-1,390
realized $-2,733 · unrealized $1,344
Portfolio
$1,344
volume $1,058,124
Predictions
2,028
31.8/day · avg $522
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Mentions 94% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Andrew Tate post 160-189 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Esports 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage | FOLHA AMARELA | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Crypto 64% $-31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the AAVE token alignment proposal pass? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | +$84 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 98¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? | Up | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 4? | Up | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | Up | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Elections 45% $-512
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 72¢ | 75¢ | $-850 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? | No | 95¢ | 72¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$163 | win |
| Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Weather 8% $-571
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 27? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 26? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 26? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 23? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on March 22? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 17? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-133 | loss |
Sports 25% $-592
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 68¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$519 | win |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $-511 | loss |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund | Laura Siegemund | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$156 | win |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund | Iga Swiatek | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-136 | loss |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Victoria Pohle | Victoria Pohle | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Nets vs. Raptors | Nets | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | 76ers | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
Politics 38% $-617
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 14¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | No | 91¢ | 62¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | Yes | 13¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | $-11 | loss |
Finance 15% $-626
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | Yes | 11¢ | 16¢ | +$57 | win |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | 90¢ | 84¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? | No | 92¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-67 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 18? | Up | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 18? | Up | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 24% $-782
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 19, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-75 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on March 11? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 5? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Google dip to $285 in February? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-94 | loss |
Culture 26% $-1,021
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 72¢ | 18¢ | $-203 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 20¢ | 82¢ | +$163 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will "Age of Attraction: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$119 | win |
Geopolitics 41% $-1,948
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 90¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$261 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 91¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
Other 41% $-3,034
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 24¢ | 36¢ | +$78 | win |
| Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 91¢ | 64¢ | $-123 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$173 | win |
| Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | Yes | 25¢ | 23¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 79¢ | 84¢ | +$5 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Li Tu | Li Tu | 59.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $46 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 87.1¢ | 99¢ | $-33 | $78 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | $-42 | $92 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 95¢ | $-48 | $98 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 91.9¢ | 99¢ | $-67 | $146 | 17/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 17? | Down | 92.8¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | $464 | 17/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry | Tomas Etcheverry | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$459 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will CS Cristal win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will CS Cristal win on 2026-04-16? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Jadoodoo win the Legend Trade Series? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $89 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $61 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-04-15? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $369 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $91 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 8, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $96 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $90 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 5, 2026? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $48 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $97 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 4, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | $72 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 12, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $-39 | $80 | 16/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry | Carlos Alcaraz | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-451 | $939 | 16/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | +$1,322 | $219 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$253 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$229 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 88¢ | +$160 | $51 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $182 | 15/04/2026 |
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | $-40 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 88.1¢ | 12¢ | $-150 | $1,642 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-225 | $499 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | $-264 | $579 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1,235 | $1,323 | 15/04/2026 |
| Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $92 | 14/04/2026 |
| Campinas: Victor Braga vs Juan Pablo Varillas | Victor Braga | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $26 | 13/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? | Up | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | $-79 | $166 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$519 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | Yes | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | +$181 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$179 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$163 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | $70 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 1¢ | +$9 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Nets vs. Raptors | Nets | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $51 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | $193 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | $113 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-83 | $293 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | $-90 | $190 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | $-151 | $357 | 12/04/2026 |