potatobrahh

Other 65% +$6,641 $6,236 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will USD/JPY hit 160 (High) in 2026?	No	14¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	18¢	100¢	+$339	win
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?	Yes	20¢	100¢	+$3,053	win
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	Yes	27¢	100¢	+$2,133	win
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?	No	6¢	0¢	+$170	win
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	No	68¢	100¢	+$487	win
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-40	loss
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	Yes	30¢	100¢	$-62	loss

Economy 83% +$5,028 $10,342 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	14¢	8¢	+$108	win
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?	No	79¢	100¢	+$30	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$28	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$-56	loss
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$1,011	win

Geopolitics 57% +$3,065 $10,446 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$46	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	57¢	33¢	$-195	loss
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	9¢	7¢	+$7	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	54¢	100¢	+$116	win
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	30¢	100¢	$-117	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	43¢	0¢	+$32	win
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	49¢	5¢	$-86	loss
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	85¢	84¢	$-1	loss
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	45¢	0¢	$-54	loss
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$17	win

Politics 58% +$242 $11,178 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	50¢	100¢	+$59	win
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	79¢	1¢	$-40	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	59¢	40¢	$-133	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	80¢	92¢	$-15	loss
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Trump visit China by March 31?	No	93¢	100¢	+$354	win
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$78	win
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Elections 100% +$10 $216 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Sanseitō win the second-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	No	96¢	100¢	+$7	win
Japanese Snap Election Called by January 31, 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$3	win

Tech 100% +$8 $35 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?	Yes	35¢	0¢	+$8	win