Win rate
77.6%
45 W / 13 L
Total PnL
$-2,725
realized $-11,360 · unrealized $8,635
Portfolio
$8,635
volume $168,409
Predictions
74
1.6/day · avg $2,276
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 85% +$330
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$217 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 24¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? | No | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? | Yes | 46¢ | 22¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 89¢ | +$50 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 82¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 78¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | — |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | win |
Elections 50% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $-35 | loss |
Weather 0% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 1? | No | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
Other 56% $-363
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 61¢ | 56¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 32¢ | 38¢ | +$1,431 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51¢ | 62¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-989 | loss |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-301 | loss |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-618 | loss |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 37.4¢ | 0¢ | $-989 | $1,001 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 1? | No | 96.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$558 | $2,122 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$286 | $1,659 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $638 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $137 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | No | 73.1¢ | 0¢ | $-301 | $301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-618 | $824 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | Yes | 57.1¢ | 6¢ | $-1,573 | $2,398 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | Yes | 28.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3,581 | $4,511 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | No | 73.9¢ | 84¢ | +$25 | $174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | No | 94.0¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $663 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $1,849 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $968 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | $1,068 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $523 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $495 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $500 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $288 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $60 | 31/01/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $400 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | No | 77.4¢ | 82¢ | +$37 | $550 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 98¢ | +$39 | $1,105 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31? | Yes | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | +$362 | $802 | 30/09/2025 |
| Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$511 | $1,313 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$372 | $1,992 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 60.3¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $531 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will France strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $41 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 68.8¢ | 69¢ | +$3 | $321 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 30¢ | +$60 | $46 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30? | No | 89.8¢ | 92¢ | +$53 | $2,788 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 78.5¢ | 96¢ | +$762 | $3,585 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 38¢ | +$1,431 | $3,639 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | +$645 | $941 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | $1,856 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 38.2¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | $410 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? | No | 78.9¢ | 88¢ | +$88 | $611 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | No | 67.4¢ | 82¢ | +$9 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51.0¢ | 62¢ | +$6 | $306 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? | No | 74.6¢ | 75¢ | +$2 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | Yes | 56.4¢ | 58¢ | $-18 | $215 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 66¢ | +$132 | $134 | 31/05/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 82¢ | $-6 | $79 | 31/05/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 78¢ | $-6 | $30 | 31/05/2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | $23 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 83.8¢ | 89¢ | +$50 | $828 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | No | 76.6¢ | 83¢ | +$28 | $337 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | +$217 | $369 | 30/06/2026 |