Win rate
54.5%
78 W / 65 L
Total PnL
$10,403
realized $-9,458 · unrealized $19,861
Portfolio
$19,861
volume $401,203
Predictions
127
4.7/day · avg $3,159
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 57% +$12,443
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-354 | loss |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 69¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 78¢ | +$639 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 20¢ | $-271 | loss |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 88¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 100% +$175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Elections 50% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Crypto 50% $-168
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 71¢ | 62¢ | $-161 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Down | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Up | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
Politics 54% $-555
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 26¢ | 8¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 25¢ | 8¢ | $-214 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 39¢ | 41¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 6¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-309 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | win |
Other 44% $-1,536
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 63¢ | 57¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25¢ | 52¢ | +$28 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 69¢ | 44¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11,494 | $5,605 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$242 | $5,201 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $2,363 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $222 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 24.4¢ | 9¢ | +$39 | $193 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $356 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $171 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $3,843 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83.9¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $1,300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $181 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 21.6¢ | 0¢ | $-309 | $480 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 73.1¢ | 100¢ | $-844 | $3,792 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $6,575 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 65.4¢ | 91¢ | +$481 | $2,562 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,479 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $107 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3,763 | $12,657 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $500 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 37.8¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 31.1¢ | 9¢ | +$21 | $383 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $460 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 9.6¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | $200 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 74.2¢ | 91¢ | +$474 | $4,217 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$513 | $2,013 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $218 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $461 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 11.1¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 58.6¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | $237 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers | Iowa Hawkeyes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,080 | 20/03/2026 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigers | Clemson Tigers | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $102 | 20/03/2026 |
| Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Hofstra Pride | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 20/03/2026 |
| Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats | Santa Clara Broncos | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 20/03/2026 |
| McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Vanderbilt Commodores | 66.8¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $138 | 19/03/2026 |
| Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils | Duke Blue Devils | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $162 | 19/03/2026 |
| South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | Louisville Cardinals | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $205 | 19/03/2026 |
| South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | South Florida Bulls | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $48 | 19/03/2026 |
| McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | McNeese State Cowboys | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $112 | 19/03/2026 |
| McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 150.5 | Over | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 19/03/2026 |