Win rate
51.5%
17 W / 16 L
Total PnL
$-94
realized $-1,326 · unrealized $1,232
Portfolio
$1,232
volume $9,949
Predictions
263
7.7/day · avg $38
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 70% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 12% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 12¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | win |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 50% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 0% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Down | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Sports 0% $-26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims) | Marcio Barbosa | 82¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mike Malott | 72¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Spread: Magic (-12.5) | Magic | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Recent Trades (34)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Spread: Magic (-12.5) | Magic | 58.2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $109 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Down | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $41 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 07/03/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? | No | 99.4¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $47 | 07/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 01/01/1970 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims) | Marcio Barbosa | 82.2¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | $36 | 19/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mike Malott | 71.8¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | $32 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $263 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $306 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $174 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $180 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $69 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $57 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $40 | 15/05/2026 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 40¢ | +$2 | $20 | 27/05/2026 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $38 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $66 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 95.5¢ | 75¢ | $-17 | $229 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $46 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | No | 96.5¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | $41 | 30/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | $23 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.8¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | $113 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84.0¢ | 82¢ | $-0 | $25 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $50 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | $22 | 31/12/2026 |