Win rate
54.7%
519 W / 430 L
Total PnL
$8,631
realized $7,929 · unrealized $701
Portfolio
$701
volume $18,162,488
Predictions
3,047
70.5/day · avg $5,961
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$5,356
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
Other 50% +$1,335
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | win |
| Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
| Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
Crypto 56% +$646
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will January be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? | Yes | 5¢ | 13¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 76% +$546
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 4¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in March? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$232 | win |
Sports 62% +$345
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 57% +$339
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
Politics 65% +$172
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 21¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | +$6 | win |
Culture 17% $-22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top global Netflix show this week? | No | 11¢ | 5¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Weather 0% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Economy 25% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
Finance 33% $-77
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brex IPO before 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 5¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | +$25 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| BNP Paribas Open: Karolina Muchova vs Anna Bondar | Anna Bondar | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$18 | win |
Mentions 46% $-179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 14¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $82 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $68 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 17? | No | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 special election? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $29 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 20.7¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $110 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $91 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | $97 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$58 | $24 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $51 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $52 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $29 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $35 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $140 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $39 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $76 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $26 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $57 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Danielle Martin win the by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $33 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $36 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $56 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | $63 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $34 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $33 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $31 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $28 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $23 | 05/04/2026 |