Win rate
82.7%
186 W / 39 L
Total PnL
$585
realized $-347 · unrealized $932
Portfolio
$932
volume $73,337
Predictions
700
11.5/day · avg $105
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 92% +$280
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 19? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 16? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 14? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on April 13? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 89% +$117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 24¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Bill Gates charged by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Prince Andrew record an interview by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Claude go down 0 times in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| ZachXBT investigation post over 4M views on day one? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Prince Andrew apologize by Feb 28? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| ICE forced to unmask by February 28? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
Elections 100% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 74¢ | 91¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Geopolitics 71% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 86¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 63¢ | 20¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 55¢ | 8¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 89% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 51¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | loss |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ferrari double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Switzerland record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Austria record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 100% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
Economy 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 75% $-156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 56¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 17? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $198 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 16? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $217 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 16? | No | 89.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $24 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $62 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 14? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $34 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 13? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $59 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on April 13? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $219 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 63.6¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $64 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 9? | Yes | 54.5¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 7? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $66 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $42 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 7? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $88 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 6? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $91 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or higher on April 6? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 5? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $27 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 4? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $179 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $41 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 3? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $43 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 3? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 3? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $37 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 74.5¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $168 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $272 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $276 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 1? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $51 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 1? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 01/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $108 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Prince Andrew record an interview by March 31? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude go down 3-4 times in March? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $108 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on March 31? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $498 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |