Win rate
71.8%
158 W / 62 L
Total PnL
$2,335
realized $-3,718 · unrealized $6,053
Portfolio
$6,053
volume $108,724
Predictions
272
6.0/day · avg $400
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 72% +$2,667
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 90¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 4¢ | +$26 | win |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 57¢ | 90¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 74% +$390
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 82¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | No | 21¢ | 92¢ | +$59 | win |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 75¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 78% +$387
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 36¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Elections 33% +$52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
Crypto 100% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 78¢ | +$7 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Tech 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Culture 50% $-1,364
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-783 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-383 | loss |
| Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-137 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 49.4¢ | 100¢ | +$219 | $213 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $417 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $38 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $238 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $332 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 90¢ | $-19 | $336 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-64 | $117 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $181 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 48.4¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $46 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $437 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 68.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 68.8¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $162 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $321 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $354 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 22.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $68 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 69.9¢ | 90¢ | $-23 | $264 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 79.5¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $95 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 48.8¢ | 100¢ | +$416 | $906 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $372 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | $660 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.3¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $233 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 63.7¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $182 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $572 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $756 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $361 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $450 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 53.5¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $173 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 48.1¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $277 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 71.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 69.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $142 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $195 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $247 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Stinky by March 31? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |