Win rate
88.2%
1196 W / 160 L
Total PnL
$1,674,911
realized $-5,401,511 · unrealized $7,076,422
Portfolio
$7,076,422
volume $193,462,010
Predictions
1,348
6.2/day · avg $143,518
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/04/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Economy 91% +$698,348
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2,823 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$61,022 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3,750 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$67,190 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$485 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$13,295 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,813 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$99,716 | win |
Politics 94% +$538,360
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-4,000 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$8,609 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$507 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$9,230 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$200 | win |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$766 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$5,301 | win |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$46 | win |
Other 94% +$243,855
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Canton FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$399 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 80¢ | $-2,499 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$465 | win |
| Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,284 | win |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-172 | loss |
Geopolitics 91% +$134,300
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27,827 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-125 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$142 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,000 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15,314 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-798 | loss |
Elections 95% +$114,106
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3,769 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3,122 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$809 | win |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | win |
| GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$878 | win |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$306 | win |
| Election certified on January 6? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,620 | loss |
| Election certified on January 6? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-4,639 | loss |
| Canada election called before 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 98% +$2,988
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$598 | win |
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 91¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Deel IPO by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | win |
Culture 80% +$2,274
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$793 | win |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1,577 | win |
Mentions 100% +$121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Barron tweet in September? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in June? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Tech 94% $-5,560
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$191 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-20,293 | loss |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1,194 | win |
| Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Apple release a new product line in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| OpenAI IPO in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,546 | win |
| MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
Crypto 92% $-8,640
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dreamcash launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1,590 | win |
| Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Sports 67% $-44,210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Charles Jourdain | 56¢ | 56¢ | $-5 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mike Malott | 71¢ | 72¢ | +$5 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Prelims) | Marcio Barbosa | 81¢ | 78¢ | $-40 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Main Card) | Robert Valentin | 59¢ | 61¢ | +$20 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Gokhan Saricam | 58¢ | 58¢ | +$5 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Mark Vologdin | 46¢ | 50¢ | +$45 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) | Gauge Young | 59¢ | 59¢ | +$0 | — |
| UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 59¢ | 8¢ | $-501 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Melissa Croden (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) | Daria Zhelezniakova | 47¢ | 59¢ | +$119 | win |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Josh Hokit | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $301 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $1,398 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $9,882 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $4,900 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,000 | $3,996,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Josh Hokit | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $510 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Carlos Ulberg | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $510 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims) | Tatiana Suarez | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | $590 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) | Aaron Pico | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | $700 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | $7,246 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | Chris Padilla | 60.0¢ | 50¢ | $-100 | $600 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) | Esteban Ribovics | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | $330 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Prelims) | Francisco Prado | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-380 | $380 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) | Nate Landwehr | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | $470 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $3,175 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15,314 | $6,484,686 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be a perfect NCAA bracket? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $1,482 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will AJ Dybantsa win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 98.8¢ | 0¢ | $-798 | $25,269 | 07/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Thomas Petersen | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $510 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims) | Alessandro Costa | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $800 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | Tabatha Ricci | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-460 | $460 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Rafael Estevam | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-460 | $460 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) | Melissa Gatto | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 05/04/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card) | Chris Duncan | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-550 | $550 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $45,297 | 03/04/2026 |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $15,667 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $7,190 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $2,822 | 01/04/2026 |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $188 | 01/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7,967 | $1,208,490 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4,750 | $4,745,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4,222 | $587,305 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4,031 | $924,726 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,690 | $159,008 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,667 | $277,063 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,661 | $376,453 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$945 | $33,372 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$868 | $85,907 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$653 | $101,847 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | $296,356 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$472 | $23,810 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | $9,710 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $27,862 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $9,736 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $50,230 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $129,856 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $4,900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump sue Powell by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $16,458 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $17,446 | 31/03/2026 |