Win rate
73.8%
104 W / 37 L
Total PnL
$960
realized $-14,911 · unrealized $15,872
Portfolio
$15,872
volume $1,282,736
Predictions
155
1.8/day · avg $8,276
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 100% +$16,402
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | win |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$493 | win |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$612 | win |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2,847 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$715 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$431 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$799 | win |
Other 74% +$6,077
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 55¢ | 42¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-295 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-377 | loss |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | 51¢ | 86¢ | +$174 | win |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | Yes | 50¢ | 14¢ | $-137 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | win |
| Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Tech 86% +$2,395
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Economy 100% +$36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Esports 75% $-78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs The QUBE Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | The QUBE Esports | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Boring Players - Map 1 Winner | Alter Ego | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: The QUBE Esports vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | FengDa Gaming | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Legion vs Boring Players (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | Legion | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | loss |
Culture 0% $-267
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | loss |
Politics 86% $-691
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2,914 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 45¢ | 1¢ | $-4,080 | loss |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times during Panthers visit? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Sports 62% $-779
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 39¢ | 46¢ | +$103 | win |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-491 | loss |
| Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-340 | loss |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Nuggets | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-760 | loss |
| LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs | GIANTX | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | win |
| Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$409 | win |
| Lakers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5 | Over | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Pelicans vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5 | Over | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 60% $-10,094
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-361 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-9,770 | loss |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 49%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 40% $-12,068
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-322 | loss |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-301 | loss |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-11,783 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3,271 | $7,468 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$493 | $18,345 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $2,008 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $399 | 31/03/2026 |
| Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,730 | 21/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs The QUBE Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | The QUBE Esports | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $100 | 21/03/2026 |
| Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $518 | 21/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Boring Players - Map 1 Winner | Alter Ego | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $51 | 21/03/2026 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 4.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 21/03/2026 |
| CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 50.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,125 | $1,125 | 21/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: The QUBE Esports vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | FengDa Gaming | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $298 | 20/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Legion vs Boring Players (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs | Legion | 42.3¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | $216 | 20/03/2026 |
| South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | Louisville Cardinals | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $865 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $17,799 | 18/03/2026 |
| Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 | Over | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,477 | $2,998 | 17/03/2026 |
| Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 | Over | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,170 | $2,593 | 17/03/2026 |
| Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 | Over | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-390 | $390 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-491 | $500 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | $704 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $794 | 10/03/2026 |
| Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 37.2¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 10/03/2026 |
| Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,425 | $1,425 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 09/03/2026 |
| Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5 | Over | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$448 | $2,071 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$369 | $5,000 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? | No | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | +$122 | $5,000 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$612 | $5,557 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,000 | 07/03/2026 |
| Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $120 | 07/03/2026 |
| Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $20 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $1,999 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $5,452 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released on February 5, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $250 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released on February 5, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $250 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $336 | 22/02/2026 |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 | Over | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $183 | 22/02/2026 |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $137 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $343 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 52.3¢ | 0¢ | $-340 | $340 | 22/02/2026 |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Nuggets | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-760 | $760 | 22/02/2026 |
| Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland | Finland | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | $2,313 | 21/02/2026 |
| LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs | GIANTX | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | $8,991 | 21/02/2026 |
| First Blood in Game 2? | GIANTX | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,765 | 21/02/2026 |
| Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $13,802 | 20/02/2026 |
| Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $433 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $-503 | $503 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $3,752 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $-361 | $366 | 08/02/2026 |