Win rate
72.8%
59 W / 22 L
Total PnL
$568
realized $-245 · unrealized $813
Portfolio
$813
volume $35,035
Predictions
158
7.4/day · avg $222
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 69% +$382
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 76¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 91% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 56¢ | 50¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Finance 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Other 71% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 49¢ | 64¢ | +$3 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 44¢ | 36¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $1,009 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 49.3¢ | 92¢ | +$80 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $96 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $93 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 79.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $71 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 48.2¢ | 8¢ | $-32 | $93 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 43.6¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $153 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $28 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 92¢ | +$27 | $484 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $633 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 61.5¢ | 8¢ | $-43 | $338 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 32.3¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $116 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $20 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $477 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $191 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $145 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026? | No | 75.6¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 23/03/2026 |
| Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $48 | 20/03/2026 |
| Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Alabama Crimson Tide | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $27 | 20/03/2026 |
| Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 20/03/2026 |
| LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Arizona Wildcats | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $143 | 20/03/2026 |
| North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $135 | 19/03/2026 |
| South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals | Louisville Cardinals | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 19/03/2026 |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 07/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,037 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $112 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 70.0¢ | 74¢ | +$3 | $27 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 30¢ | +$15 | $54 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 61.8¢ | 93¢ | +$61 | $133 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 57.1¢ | 44¢ | $-8 | $63 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 49.0¢ | 7¢ | $-20 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 44.1¢ | 36¢ | +$4 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $285 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $251 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $310 | 30/04/2026 |