Win rate
72.8%
67 W / 25 L
Total PnL
$613
realized $-2,663 · unrealized $3,276
Portfolio
$3,276
volume $83,833
Predictions
176
6.1/day · avg $476
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 78% +$577
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$127 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 70¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 28¢ | 26¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 85% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 52¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 67¢ | 64¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 65¢ | 73¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 38¢ | 34¢ | +$7 | win |
Crypto 33% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? | No | 52¢ | 62¢ | +$5 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 20% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 81¢ | 81¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 64% $-22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $458 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $87 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.6¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 62.9¢ | 93¢ | +$88 | $361 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,673 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 11/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 49.5¢ | 7¢ | +$18 | $45 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $2,206 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 60.7¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $152 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 41.4¢ | 93¢ | +$13 | $70 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $2,876 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $7,777 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 64.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $984 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $345 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 07/03/2026 |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | No | 89.1¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $67 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $962 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 72.0¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | $29 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 28¢ | +$31 | $80 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 51.2¢ | 46¢ | $-7 | $61 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 34¢ | +$7 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 82.6¢ | 94¢ | +$54 | $196 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 90.9¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 95.5¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | $201 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 26.3¢ | 3¢ | $-9 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 49.0¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | $34 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $27 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 42.1¢ | 50¢ | $-17 | $149 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $182 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $91 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,150 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $262 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $988 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $70 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 26.9¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | $207 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 94¢ | +$41 | $319 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 59.4¢ | 75¢ | +$10 | $32 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 73¢ | +$2 | $24 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 66¢ | +$14 | $45 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $840 | 31/05/2026 |