Win rate
64.6%
278 W / 152 L
Total PnL
$8,159
realized $-6,062 · unrealized $14,221
Portfolio
$14,221
volume $560,638
Predictions
788
6.7/day · avg $711
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/01/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 56% +$4,997
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 75¢ | 73¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 60¢ | 78¢ | +$9 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 64¢ | 84¢ | +$138 | win |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | Yes | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
Other 69% +$2,916
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$385 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 93¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 93¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 85¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | No | 36¢ | 36¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 70% +$1,951
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 73¢ | 82¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$8 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 86¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$167 | win |
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 24¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 65¢ | 70¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$63 | win |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 58¢ | 94¢ | +$63 | win |
Crypto 100% +$176
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 57¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 80¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Down | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 62% +$94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | Suns | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| 76ers vs. Bucks | 76ers | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
Finance 100% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honda and Nissan merger announced before February? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Economy 0% $-107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 51¢ | 8¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
Elections 62% $-1,830
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 58¢ | 62¢ | $-12 | loss |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 53¢ | 66¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$13 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 35¢ | 34¢ | $-167 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 58¢ | 50¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 70¢ | 62¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 59¢ | 64¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $102 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 98¢ | +$61 | $101 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $310 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $133 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.4¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | $81 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 99¢ | $-71 | $160 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 2¢ | $-23 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 40.0¢ | 1¢ | $-44 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Yoon out of custody by March 31? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$663 | $4,956 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will People's Action Party (PAP) win the 2025 Singapore parliamentary election? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $2,880 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? | Yes | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | $1,037 | 31/03/2026 |
| Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 44.8¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026? | Yes | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $210 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31? | No | 54.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? | No | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $202 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 31.0¢ | 12¢ | $-21 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 53.9¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $51 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $171 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 77.8¢ | 90¢ | +$9 | $42 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | No | 32.0¢ | 14¢ | +$104 | $64 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $54 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $40 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? | No | 81.0¢ | 87¢ | +$2 | $22 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $115 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election? | Yes | 59.8¢ | 0¢ | $-249 | $249 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) | Suns | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $62 | 16/03/2026 |
| Suns vs. Celtics | Suns | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 16/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Down | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $34 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | Yes | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $46 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election? | No | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $45 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $62 | 24/02/2026 |
| Winter Games 2026: Norway (-6.5) vs. USA (+6.5) gold medals? | USA | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $39 | 23/02/2026 |
| Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 53.3¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $62 | 23/02/2026 |
| Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | $146 | 08/02/2026 |