Win rate
22.4%
17 W / 59 L
Total PnL
$-27,211
realized $-47,425 · unrealized $20,214
Portfolio
$20,214
volume $1,312,516
Predictions
77
2.5/day · avg $17,046
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 100% +$52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 41¢ | +$48 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | Yes | 25¢ | 18¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 20% $-154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 32¢ | 20¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 4¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? | Yes | 55¢ | 40¢ | $-180 | loss |
Other 18% $-5,402
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 34¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-3,566 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-530 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
Geopolitics 21% $-23,010
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 56¢ | 32¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 38¢ | 33¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 14¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 60¢ | 91¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | Yes | 17¢ | 11¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 74.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $620 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3,566 | $8,346 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 7.3¢ | 16¢ | $-7,174 | $4,036 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 15.7¢ | 17¢ | +$1,304 | $18,388 | 07/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | Yes | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $525 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 30, 2026? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | $-27 | $221 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $152 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 31.3¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | $6,486 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $886 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | $321 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-342 | $678 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 55.8¢ | 0¢ | $-530 | $1,948 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 54.9¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $100 | 07/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $54 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $27 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $26 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $25 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $769 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-336 | $360 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 12¢ | $-77 | $2,437 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 9¢ | $-12 | $1,011 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? | Yes | 55.4¢ | 40¢ | $-180 | $660 | 30/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 1¢ | $-458 | $679 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 67.1¢ | 64¢ | +$48 | $1,228 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $120 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.5¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $907 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 5¢ | $-13 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 4¢ | $-14 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 81.0¢ | 95¢ | $-16 | $580 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 14¢ | $-17 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 88.8¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $120 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 87.4¢ | 93¢ | $-24 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 28.4¢ | 6¢ | $-26 | $142 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? | Yes | 87.7¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | $285 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 100¢ | $-135 | $7,914 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Yes | 50.5¢ | 8¢ | $-1,213 | $4,902 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 39.7¢ | 16¢ | $-9,606 | $28,270 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 7.0¢ | 13¢ | $-3,274 | $5,647 | 15/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 78¢ | +$4 | $200 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | $100 | 31/05/2026 |