Win rate
71.4%
10 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$-9,556
realized $-53,283 · unrealized $43,727
Portfolio
$43,727
volume $241,418
Predictions
14
1.0/day · avg $17,244
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 71% $-449
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 90¢ | +$211 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$964 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 63¢ | 84¢ | +$5,506 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 45¢ | 17¢ | $-12,004 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Other 71% $-7,346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 45¢ | 68¢ | +$377 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-944 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 49¢ | 30¢ | $-7,096 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$76 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$41 | win |
Recent Trades (14)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 63.4¢ | 84¢ | +$5,506 | $18,665 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $911 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $1,999 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 99¢ | +$76 | $1,000 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 45.5¢ | 17¢ | $-12,004 | $24,311 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 78.2¢ | 80¢ | +$41 | $1,790 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 90¢ | +$3,339 | $22,573 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$964 | $9,993 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-944 | $1,033 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 49.5¢ | 30¢ | $-7,096 | $9,896 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 94¢ | +$1,565 | $7,152 | 15/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 68¢ | +$377 | $935 | 31/05/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 78.3¢ | 90¢ | +$211 | $1,471 | 30/06/2026 |