Win rate
27.1%
35 W / 94 L
Total PnL
$-1,038
realized $-1,915 · unrealized $877
Portfolio
$877
volume $1,314,562
Predictions
280
14.4/day · avg $4,695
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 30/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Tech 60% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 30 above $290? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 75000? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 67% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 0% $-11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
Politics 50% $-63
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 27¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 65¢ | 54¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Economy 0% $-67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-67 | loss |
Elections 6% $-75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| French election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% $-133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 89¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Sports 5% $-266
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 48¢ | 44¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 38¢ | 46¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 24¢ | $-6 | loss |
Other 21% $-432
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 90.8¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $4,800 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Danny Willett win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $5,000 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $14,000 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | $23,830 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 88.9¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $41 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | Yes | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $55 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 11? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $48 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $54 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $31 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 4? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $64 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on April 3, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $53 | 04/04/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Down | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 30 above $290? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 12 be less than 75? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | $-139 | $58,387 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | No | 83.4¢ | 85¢ | $-2 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 68.0¢ | 60¢ | $-4 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 90¢ | $-5 | $37 | 08/03/2026 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | No | 91.0¢ | 84¢ | $-4 | $26 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $161 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 72.9¢ | 63¢ | $-3 | $23 | 31/12/2025 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $65 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | $32 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Oceania win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $4,700 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 75000? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $22 | 01/01/1970 |
| Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | $82 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Dante Moore be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $5,100 | 23/04/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-67 | $66,779 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 78.1¢ | 60¢ | $-4 | $41 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |