4UU

Elections 39% +$8,442 $37,586 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	44¢	49¢	+$93	win
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	7¢	1¢	$-301	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	65¢	92¢	+$526	win
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 90-94 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-582	loss
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	97¢	98¢	+$9	win
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	17¢	64¢	+$679	win
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	17¢	61¢	+$239	win
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	45¢	1¢	$-1,157	loss
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$4,357	win
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	No	85¢	100¢	+$282	win

Geopolitics 73% +$4,583 $62,686 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	69¢	66¢	+$900	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	62¢	68¢	+$0	—
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	72¢	90¢	+$600	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	3¢	4¢	+$72	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	38¢	0¢	$-1,508	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	80¢	83¢	+$15	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	32¢	78¢	+$1,990	win
Senators vs. Rangers	Senators	63¢	100¢	+$1,110	win
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?	No	44¢	100¢	+$422	win
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?	No	63¢	0¢	$-367	loss

Other 100% +$4,079 $17,956 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	44¢	66¢	+$1,340	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	50¢	78¢	+$636	win
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$150	win
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	41¢	80¢	+$1,840	win
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats	Kentucky Wildcats	58¢	100¢	+$0	—
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks	Arkansas Razorbacks	91¢	100¢	+$112	win

Tech 0% $-151 $800 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	Yes	58¢	100¢	$-151	loss

Sports 33% $-701 $872 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	46¢	100¢	+$67	win
Bruins vs. Sabres	Sabres	66¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?	No	48¢	0¢	$-681	loss

Politics 28% $-1,539 $4,034 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	30¢	0¢	$-700	loss
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Will Trump say "Job" 12+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-335	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-635	loss
Will Trump say "Women's Sport" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-138	loss
Will Trump say "Egg" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?	No	56¢	100¢	+$53	win
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	20¢	0¢	$-203	loss
Will Trump or Melania say "Chicago" at Chicago Opening Night?	No	38¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29)	No	9¢	0¢	$-114	loss

Culture 43% $-9,260 $13,339 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?	No	65¢	100¢	+$99	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-307	loss
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$228	win
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	59¢	0¢	$-1,527	loss
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-7,559	loss
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?	No	30¢	100¢	+$10	win