trader-497

Weather 30% +$1,516 $76,802 vol · 1266 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	Yes	38¢	30¢	$-17	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?	Yes	58¢	77¢	+$14	win
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-67	loss
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-93	loss
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-140	loss
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 30?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 30?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 30?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$17	win

Economy 60% +$50 $819 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	77¢	93¢	+$52	win
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-199	loss
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 43% +$45 $812 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	67¢	88¢	+$96	win
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$58	win
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	66¢	60¢	$-3	loss
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$6	win

Culture 40% +$27 $2,821 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-129	loss
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$60	win
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	No	100¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-68	loss
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?	No	100¢	100¢	$-112	loss
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$26	win
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	No	89¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?	No	100¢	100¢	$-19	loss

Crypto 67% +$16 $144 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 9?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-55	loss

Tech 50% +$15 $197 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $250-$255 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Finance 100% +$8 $25 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$8	win

Sports 100% +$3 $529 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?	No	71¢	100¢	+$0	—

Mentions 33% $-27 $924 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-103	loss
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-59	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-139	loss

Other 42% $-56 $17,306 vol · 115 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-175	loss
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?	No	3¢	0¢	+$400	win
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-418	loss
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	32¢	32¢	+$1	win
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	Yes	50¢	32¢	$-7	loss
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?	Yes	78¢	78¢	+$0	win
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	91¢	98¢	+$2	win
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	90¢	95¢	+$2	win
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-132	loss

Geopolitics 33% $-108 $855 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-108	loss
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	No	85¢	100¢	$-8	loss

Politics 12% $-119 $994 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-217	loss
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-68	loss