Win rate
87.6%
71 W / 10 L
Total PnL
$1,240
realized $255 · unrealized $985
Portfolio
$985
volume $71,778
Predictions
164
1.5/day · avg $438
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$609
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 64¢ | 60¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 3¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Geopolitics 67% +$467
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 33¢ | 74¢ | +$133 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | — |
| US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 6¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | 38¢ | 6¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 61¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 60¢ | 94¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 71¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 100% +$135
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 67% +$77
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 65¢ | 36¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 65¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Something | 33¢ | 40¢ | +$131 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 3¢ | +$2 | $118 | 18/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 81.3¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | $598 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $347 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $206 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 84¢ | +$266 | $588 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$256 | $1,181 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | $270 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 38.1¢ | 17¢ | $-207 | $384 | 07/04/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $610 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Something | 32.5¢ | 40¢ | +$131 | $1,846 | 31/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 18/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 18/03/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 17/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,980 | 16/03/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 16/03/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 15/03/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 15/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 15/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,386 | 14/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $714 | 13/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $285 | 13/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 13/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $428 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $285 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Solana Up or Down - March 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $143 | 11/03/2026 |
| XRP Up or Down - March 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $68 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $991 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $297 | 10/03/2026 |
| Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | Up | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Down | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/03/2026 |