Win rate
73.1%
2004 W / 739 L
Total PnL
$238,352
realized $144,476 · unrealized $93,876
Portfolio
$93,876
volume $33,464,622
Predictions
5,145
28.2/day · avg $6,504
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 73% +$109,230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | No | 56¢ | 42¢ | $-807 | loss |
| Will Igor Tudor be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$310 | win |
| Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 45¢ | 66¢ | +$85 | win |
| Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 88¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | +$12 | win |
Sports 73% +$87,523
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$198 | win |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 87¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | +$247 | win |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? | No | 90¢ | 97¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 11¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 45% +$17,771
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 78¢ | +$42 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 30¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 48¢ | 46¢ | +$54 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 65¢ | 30¢ | $-138 | loss |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the Atlantic Division? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 37¢ | 50¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Israel win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Esports 64% +$3,027
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$1,170 | win |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season | G2 Esports | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will G2 Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) | FURIA | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 | Over | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO5) | FURIA | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$1,422 | win |
| Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) | MOUZ | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) | FURIA | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will GIANTX win VALORANT Champions 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
Crypto 83% +$2,624
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Big Game: Coin Toss Team Winner | NE | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO/DQ? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$262 | win |
| Will the fight be ruled a No Contest or end in any other result? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis be decided any other way? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Netherlands win the UEFA Women's Euro? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win by KO/TKO/DQ? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 79% +$2,258
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 16¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$197 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during next White House press briefing? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 80% +$2,075
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | loss |
| Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Taylor Swift be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | win |
| Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-189 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Grocery" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will anyone say "LinkedIn" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will anyone say "Cloud" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
Finance 43% +$1,203
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 7¢ | 2¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$541 | win |
Culture 89% +$1,138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marcel Reed win the 2025–2026 Davey O'Brien Award? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025) | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025) | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "Stranger Things 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025) | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will JasonTheWeen win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will “Other” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 21) | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Man’s Best Friend’s first-week album sales be between 400000 and 450000? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 62% +$186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Kamala Harris say "Election" or "Elected" during Colbert show on July 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 50% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Los Angeles Clippers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $2,121 | 18/04/2026 |
| Power Slap 19: Devin Jenkins vs. Jake Hager (Fight 5) | Jake Hager | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $50 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-17? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $20 | 18/04/2026 |
| CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 | Over | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $55 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-16? | No | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $123 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,493 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? | No | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $247 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $656 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | +$108 | $224 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | +$89 | $174 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $55 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $23 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $-847 | $950 | 16/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $183 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-297 | $300 | 16/04/2026 |
| Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 32.7¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $58 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-15? | No | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $1,816 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $1,561 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $3,913 | 15/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Hornets | 17.0¢ | 100¢ | +$552 | $113 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $77 | 14/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Heat | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | $125 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 24.8¢ | 100¢ | +$402 | $2,486 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | $2,202 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | +$173 | $639 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$111 | $306 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | $169 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,430 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $318 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $244 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $162 | 13/04/2026 |
| The Masters 2026: Playoff? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $1,375 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-13? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $185 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $147 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 39.3¢ | 0¢ | $-559 | $2,360 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $-238 | $272 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $73 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $78 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $49 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | $284 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | Yes | 8.3¢ | 100¢ | +$899 | $178 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Wales qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$578 | $1,935 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 100¢ | +$572 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $978 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | $743 | 12/04/2026 |